AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.</li>
<li>Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.</li>
<li>If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.
Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.
If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.


OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Dell doubles long-term growth outlook to 7–9% revenue and 15%+ EPS CAGR through FY30, led by AI infrastructure.</li>
<li>AI PCs emerge as Dell’s next growth engine; global refresh cycle could finally kickstart long-awaited PC upturn.</li>
<li>Taiwan makers Asus, Acer, Quanta, and Wistron positioned to benefit as AI PC and server demand scales together.</li>
</ul>


Dell doubles long-term growth outlook to 7–9% revenue and 15%+ EPS CAGR through FY30, led by AI infrastructure.
AI PCs emerge as Dell’s next growth engine; global refresh cycle could finally kickstart long-awaited PC upturn.
Taiwan makers Asus, Acer, Quanta, and Wistron positioned to benefit as AI PC and server demand scales together.


PC Monitor: Dell Doubles Multi-Year Forecasts; AI PC Up-Cycle, Art Thou Finally Here?

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.</li>
<li>With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.</li>
<li>If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.
With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.
If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.


The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global companies are shifting supply chains, adopting the "China+1" strategy, with India emerging as a significant winner, attracting manufacturing and investment across sectors like electronics, EVs, and textiles.</li>
<li>India offers a strategic alternative to China, with favorable policies, a growing domestic market, and trade advantages, positioning itself as a manufacturing hub amid global trade shifts.</li>
<li>India is no longer just a backup for China; it's becoming the primary destination for global supply chains, reshaping the manufacturing ecosystem with deepening local integration and technological advancements.</li>
</ul>


Global companies are shifting supply chains, adopting the "China+1" strategy, with India emerging as a significant winner, attracting manufacturing and investment across sectors like electronics, EVs, and textiles.
India offers a strategic alternative to China, with favorable policies, a growing domestic market, and trade advantages, positioning itself as a manufacturing hub amid global trade shifts.
India is no longer just a backup for China; it's becoming the primary destination for global supply chains, reshaping the manufacturing ecosystem with deepening local integration and technological advancements.


Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Global smartphone market expected to see substantial growth in 4th quarter of 2024, indicating a positive trend for the industry.</li><li>TSMC experiences a drop in revenue in Q1, as AI sector continues to expand and company addresses discrimination allegations.</li><li>AMD CEO recognizes value of open-source technology in DeepSeek, while HP announces plans to reduce workforce by cutting 2,000 jobs, reflecting industry challenges.</li></ul>

Global smartphone market expected to see substantial growth in 4th quarter of 2024, indicating a positive trend for the industry.TSMC experiences a drop in revenue in Q1, as AI sector continues to expand and company addresses discrimination allegations.AMD CEO recognizes value of open-source technology in DeepSeek, while HP announces plans to reduce workforce by cutting 2,000 jobs, reflecting industry challenges.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Global smartphones in 4Q 2024

United States

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company provides information technology solutions. The Company offers enterprise security, analytics and data management, applications development and testing, data center care, cloud consulting, and business process services. Hewlett Packard Enterprise serves customers worldwide.

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Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

PC Monitor: Dell Doubles Multi-Year Forecasts; AI PC Up-Cycle, Art Thou Finally Here?

Dell doubles growth forecast through 2030 driven by AI infra, with AI PCs as the next growth engine and potential for a global PC upturn. Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Mint Finance

Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?

Global companies are turning to India as a strategic alternative to China, shifting supply chains and investments across various sectors,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Global smartphones in 4Q 2024

4th quarter of 2024 brings growth in global smartphone market, TSMC revenue drops, AI thrives, AMD CEO values DeepSeek, HP to cut jobs, Taiwanese...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

​OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

PC Monitor: Dell Doubles Multi-Year Forecasts; AI PC Up-Cycle, Art Thou Finally Here?

​Dell doubles growth forecast through 2030 driven by AI infra, with AI PCs as the next growth engine and potential for a global PC upturn. Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

​Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Mint Finance

Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?

​Global companies are turning to India as a strategic alternative to China, shifting supply chains and investments across various sectors,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Global smartphones in 4Q 2024

4th quarter of 2024 brings growth in global smartphone market, TSMC revenue drops, AI thrives, AMD CEO values DeepSeek, HP to cut jobs, Taiwanese...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Dell doubles growth forecast through 2030 driven by AI infra, with AI PCs as the next growth engine and potential for a global PC upturn. Taiwan...

Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Global companies are turning to India as a strategic alternative to China, shifting supply chains and investments across various sectors,...