Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist Strategic Capital has made shareholder noise at civil engineer-road infra company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seikitokyu-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7819:1" rel="noopener">Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898 JP)</a> for years. Two years ago I wrote about Seikitokyu as "A REALLY Cheap Company."</li>
<li>When I wrote, it was ¥885/share. 23 months later it was ¥824/share having paid ¥60/share over two years. <em>Despite having bought back 10% of shares outstanding in the interim.</em>
</li>
<li>Today they announced a radical new Shareholder Return Policy. It is worth reading in detail. The insight is labelled BEARISH for a specific reason. That's a detail too. </li>
</ul>


Activist Strategic Capital has made shareholder noise at civil engineer-road infra company Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898 JP) for years. Two years ago I wrote about Seikitokyu as "A REALLY Cheap Company."
When I wrote, it was ¥885/share. 23 months later it was ¥824/share having paid ¥60/share over two years. Despite having bought back 10% of shares outstanding in the interim.

Today they announced a radical new Shareholder Return Policy. It is worth reading in detail. The insight is labelled BEARISH for a specific reason. That's a detail too. 


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES III:  New Return Policy at Seikitokyu (1898) - To Be Copied Elsewhere?

<p>Shareholder proposals for AGMs in Japan are somewhat rare. Activist proposals rarer still. They only affect roughly 2% of companies with June AGMs and shareholder proposals are rarely passed, but they may reflect the pressure on a company, and when something has enough support, management may end up agreeing to it if not outright supporting it later on.</p><p>Activist fund Strategic Capital has made shareholder proposals to 6 companies (that we know of) in the past month or so, starting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wakita-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11924:1" rel="noopener">Wakita &amp; Co Ltd (8125 JP)</a> which has a May AGM, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-a-look-into-wakita-8125-jp-potential-pre-event" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50034" rel="noopener">Japan Activism: A Look into Wakita (8125 JP) Potential Pre-Event</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wakita-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11924:1" rel="noopener">Wakita &amp; Co Ltd (8125 JP)</a> at the beginning of the month, and five more names announced on the 28th of April. </p><p>Those five names are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asanuma-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19612:1" rel="noopener">Asanuma Corp (1852 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seikitokyu-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7819:1" rel="noopener">Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arisawa-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18028:1" rel="noopener">Arisawa Mfg (5208 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bunka-shutter-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5903:1" rel="noopener">Bunka Shutter (5930 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyokuto-boeki-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12884:1" rel="noopener">Kyokuto Boeki Kaisha (8093 JP)</a>.</p><p>This eclectic group is unified by balance sheet excess. In this case, net cash and securities of about 50% of market cap, a lack of borrowing, a lack of destination for the accumulated capital, BUT this case has its Very Interesting Aspects. </p><h2>So... <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seikitokyu-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7819:1" rel="noopener">Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898 JP)</a> </h2><hr><p><em>Activist AGM Proposals so far this year are as follows (🤖 is Japanese language, 👹 is English):</em></p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">Date<br>Anncd</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">Ticker</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Company</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">AGM</td>
<td style="width: 48px;">Proposal</td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">Proposer</td>
<td style="width: 128px;">Smartkarma Insights</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">15 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">8918</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Land</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">27 May</td>
<td style="width: 48px;"><a href="http://www.land.jp/pdf/20210415154419_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a></td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">An individual</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">23 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">8125</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Wakita</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">27 May</td>
<td style="width: 48px;">
<a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/81250/a6125b97/fbfe/4961/baac/116bc18b2917/140120210423498992.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a> , <a href="https://stracap.jp/english/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/To-Shareholder-of-WAKITA-CO.-LTD..pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a>
</td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">Strategic Capital</td>
<td style="width: 128px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-a-look-into-wakita-8125-jp-potential-pre-event" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insight 1</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wakita-rejects-stracap-s-shareholder-proposals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insight 2</a>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">27 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">6815</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Uniden</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;"><a href="http://www.uniden.co.jp/ir/news/dat/2021/information_20210427.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a></td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">LIM Japan Event Master Fd</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">28 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">.1852</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Asanuma</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;">
<a href="https://www.asanuma.co.jp/ir/pdf/etc/20210428k.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a> , <a href="https://stracap.jp/english/proposal/2021_asanuma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a>
</td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">Strategic Capital</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-japan-agm-activism-stracap-proposals-for-asanuma-corp-1852" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insight</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">28 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">8093</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Kyokuto Boeki Kaisha</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;">
<a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS01655/21124bce/241c/4a3a/8482/00305b8413e6/140120210428402431.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a> , <a href="https://stracap.jp/english/proposal/2021_kbk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a>
</td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">Strategic Capital</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">28 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">1898</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Seikitokyu Kogyo</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;">
<a href="https://www.seikitokyu.co.jp/dev/wp-content/themes/twentysixteen/pdf/info/20210428.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a> , <a href="https://stracap.jp/english/proposal/2021_seikitokyu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a>
</td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">Strategic Capital</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">28 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">5208</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Arisawa Mfg</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;"><a href="https://stracap.jp/english/proposal/2021_arisawa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">Strategic Capital</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">28 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">5930</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Bunka Shutter</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;"><a href="https://stracap.jp/english/proposal/2021_bunkasutter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">Strategic Capital</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">28 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">2327</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">NS Solutions</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;">
<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/2327/tdnet/1958513/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a> , </td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">AVI Japan Opportunity Trust PLC</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 36px;">30 Apr</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 33.6px;">4295</td>
<td style="width: 122.4px;">Faith</td>
<td style="width: 41.6px;">June</td>
<td style="width: 48px;"><a href="https://www.faith.co.jp/ir/pdf/20210430_ir.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">🤖</a></td>
<td style="width: 187.2px;">RMB Capital Japan Oppty Fd</td>
<td style="width: 128px;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

Shareholder proposals for AGMs in Japan are somewhat rare. Activist proposals rarer still. They only affect roughly 2% of companies with June AGMs and shareholder proposals are rarely passed, but they may reflect the pressure on a company, and when something has enough support, management may end up agreeing to it if not outright supporting it later on.Activist fund Strategic Capital has made shareholder proposals to 6 companies (that we know of) in the past month or so, starting with Wakita &amp; Co Ltd (8125 JP) which has a May AGM, as discussed in Japan Activism: A Look into Wakita (8125 JP) Potential Pre-Event and Wakita &amp; Co Ltd (8125 JP) at the beginning of the month, and five more names announced on the 28th of April. Those five names are Asanuma Corp (1852 JP), Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898 JP), Arisawa Mfg (5208 JP), Bunka Shutter (5930 JP), and Kyokuto Boeki Kaisha (8093 JP).This eclectic group is unified by balance sheet excess. In this case, net cash and securities of about 50% of market cap, a lack of borrowing, a lack of destination for the accumulated capital, BUT this case has its Very Interesting Aspects. So... Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898 JP) Activist AGM Proposals so far this year are as follows (🤖 is Japanese language, 👹 is English):

Date Anncd
Ticker
Company
AGM
Proposal
Proposer
Smartkarma Insights


15 Apr
8918
Land
27 May
🤖
An individual



23 Apr
8125
Wakita
27 May

🤖 , 👹

Strategic Capital

insight 1, insight 2



27 Apr
6815
Uniden
June
🤖
LIM Japan Event Master Fd



28 Apr
.1852
Asanuma
June

🤖 , 👹

Strategic Capital
insight


28 Apr
8093
Kyokuto Boeki Kaisha
June

🤖 , 👹

Strategic Capital



28 Apr
1898
Seikitokyu Kogyo
June

🤖 , 👹

Strategic Capital



28 Apr
5208
Arisawa Mfg
June
👹
Strategic Capital



28 Apr
5930
Bunka Shutter
June
👹
Strategic Capital



28 Apr
2327
NS Solutions
June

🤖 , 
AVI Japan Opportunity Trust PLC



30 Apr
4295
Faith
June
🤖
RMB Capital Japan Oppty Fd




2021 Japan AGM Activism - StraCap Proposals for Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898) - A REALLY Cheap Company

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.</li>
<li>Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.</li>
</ul>


Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.
This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.
Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Japan

HIKARI TSUSHIN, INC. is a mobile telecommunication service subscription agency. The Company also operates telecommunication services stores, HIT SHOP, which sell cellular telephones, and related goods.  Hikari Tsushin also sells office automation equipment and insurance.

Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP)

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES III: New Return Policy at Seikitokyu (1898) - To Be Copied Elsewhere?

Seikitokyu Kogyo, after years of harassment by activist shareholder Stracap, has announced a new Shareholder Return policy - a 100% dividend payout...

Travis Lundy

2021 Japan AGM Activism - StraCap Proposals for Seikitokyu Kogyo (1898) - A REALLY Cheap Company

StraCap has now made the same Shareholder Proposals on Seikitokyu Kogyo for 3 straight years. They make sense, but are likely to be rebuffed. But...

Travis Lundy

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Bullish Outlook Intact; More Countries Breaking Out, including UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research