Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hilton Grand Vacations / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Hilton Grand Vacations reported first quarter 2026 results reflecting a generally stable business environment amid ongoing external uncertainties.</li><li>The company achieved contract sales in line with prior guidance while delivering adjusted EBITDA of $267 million, representing 8% growth year-over-year and a 130 basis point expansion in margins.</li><li>Total revenue grew modestly by 2% to $1.2 billion.</li></ul>

Hilton Grand Vacations reported first quarter 2026 results reflecting a generally stable business environment amid ongoing external uncertainties.The company achieved contract sales in line with prior guidance while delivering adjusted EBITDA of $267 million, representing 8% growth year-over-year and a 130 basis point expansion in margins.Total revenue grew modestly by 2% to $1.2 billion.

Hilton Grand Vacations: Can 8% Tour Growth Offset VPG Pressure?

<ul><li>Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a mixed set of results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, characterized by strategic advancements and financial performance aligned closely with their long-term goals.</li><li>The company demonstrated progress on several fronts, but also faced headwinds that influenced the bottom line.</li><li>On the positive side, the year 2025 marked significant milestones for Hilton Grand Vacations, particularly in expanding and enhancing their offerings and operational efficiency.</li></ul>

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a mixed set of results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, characterized by strategic advancements and financial performance aligned closely with their long-term goals.The company demonstrated progress on several fronts, but also faced headwinds that influenced the bottom line.On the positive side, the year 2025 marked significant milestones for Hilton Grand Vacations, particularly in expanding and enhancing their offerings and operational efficiency.

Hilton Grand Vacations: A 35% HGV Max Membership Surge Changes The Growth Narrative

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

<ul><li>Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a performance in the third quarter of 2025 that showcased both strategic successes and challenges.</li><li>The company's contract sales rose impressively by 17% to $907 million, setting a record on a pro forma basis.</li><li>This growth underpinned a noticeable improvement in both real estate profitability and adjusted EBITDA, which reached $302 million, marking near double-digit growth.</li></ul>

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a performance in the third quarter of 2025 that showcased both strategic successes and challenges.The company's contract sales rose impressively by 17% to $907 million, setting a record on a pro forma basis.This growth underpinned a noticeable improvement in both real estate profitability and adjusted EBITDA, which reached $302 million, marking near double-digit growth.

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)'s New Strategy Of Focusing On Millennials & Gen Z Paying Off— Will Improved Close Rates Transform Its Growth Story?

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

United States

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, and manager timeshare resorts. The Company markets and sells vacation ownership intervals, manages resorts located in leisure and urban destinations, and operates a points-based vacation club. Hilton Grand Vacations offers its services in North America, Europe and the Asia Pacific.

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Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV US)

Hilton Grand Vacations: Can 8% Tour Growth Offset VPG Pressure?

Hilton Grand Vacations reported first quarter 2026 results reflecting a generally stable business environment amid ongoing external...

Baptista Research

Hilton Grand Vacations: A 35% HGV Max Membership Surge Changes The Growth Narrative

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a mixed set of results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, characterized by strategic advancements...

Baptista Research

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)'s New Strategy Of Focusing On Millennials & Gen Z Paying Off— Will Improved Close Rates Transform Its Growth Story?

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a performance in the third quarter of 2025 that showcased both strategic successes and challenges. The...

Baptista Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

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