Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hilton Worldwide Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. demonstrated mixed results in the third quarter of 2025.</li>
<li>The company's ability to outperform expectations despite a challenging operating environment is notable.</li>
<li>The capital-light model and strong branding allowed Hilton to achieve robust adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, exceeding the higher end of their forecasts.</li>
</ul>


Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. demonstrated mixed results in the third quarter of 2025.
The company's ability to outperform expectations despite a challenging operating environment is notable.
The capital-light model and strong branding allowed Hilton to achieve robust adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, exceeding the higher end of their forecasts.


Hilton Worldwide: An Insight Into Its Asset-Light Model

<ul>
<li>Hilton's latest financial performance in the second quarter of 2025 showcases both strengths and challenges within the company.</li>
<li>The firm reported an Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1 billion, surpassing expectations despite facing challenges such as modestly negative system-wide RevPAR and shifting holiday schedules that impacted business transient RevPAR negatively by 2%.</li>
<li>The leisure transient sector, however, showed resilience with a 1% increase, bolstered by extended spring break periods.</li>
</ul>


Hilton's latest financial performance in the second quarter of 2025 showcases both strengths and challenges within the company.
The firm reported an Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1 billion, surpassing expectations despite facing challenges such as modestly negative system-wide RevPAR and shifting holiday schedules that impacted business transient RevPAR negatively by 2%.
The leisure transient sector, however, showed resilience with a 1% increase, bolstered by extended spring break periods.


Hilton Worldwide Holdings: Strategic Brand Diversification to Enhance Network Effects...

<ul>
<li>Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. provided a comprehensive overview of its performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, demonstrating robust growth and strategic expansion across its hotel portfolio.</li>
<li>The company reported strong financial results, including record unit growth, significant increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR), and notable expansion in strategic partnerships and brand diversity.</li>
<li>For 2024, Hilton achieved a system-wide RevPAR increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, showing growth across all segments and major regions.</li>
</ul>


Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. provided a comprehensive overview of its performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, demonstrating robust growth and strategic expansion across its hotel portfolio.
The company reported strong financial results, including record unit growth, significant increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR), and notable expansion in strategic partnerships and brand diversity.
For 2024, Hilton achieved a system-wide RevPAR increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, showing growth across all segments and major regions.


Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>It is difficult for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.</li>
<li>Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.</li>
<li>Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.</li>
</ul>


It is difficult for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.
Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.
Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

United States

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services. Hilton Worldwide Holdings owns and manages hotels, resorts, and time share properties worldwide.

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Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT US)

Hilton Worldwide: An Insight Into Its Asset-Light Model

The capital-light model and strong branding allowed Hilton to achieve robust adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, exceeding the higher end of their...

Baptista Research

Hilton Worldwide Holdings: Strategic Brand Diversification to Enhance Network Effects...

The firm reported an Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1 billion, surpassing expectations despite facing challenges such as modestly negative system-wide...

Baptista Research

Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!

For 2024, Hilton achieved a system-wide RevPAR increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, showing growth across all segments and major regions.

Baptista Research

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hilton Worldwide: An Insight Into Its Asset-Light Model

The capital-light model and strong branding allowed Hilton to achieve robust adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, exceeding the higher end of their...

Baptista Research

Hilton Worldwide Holdings: Strategic Brand Diversification to Enhance Network Effects...

The firm reported an Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $1 billion, surpassing expectations despite facing challenges such as modestly negative system-wide...

Baptista Research

Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!

For 2024, Hilton achieved a system-wide RevPAR increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, showing growth across all segments and major regions.

Baptista Research

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

​Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...