Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally in the US stock market continues as investors try to justify the tariffication of global trade and ignore its economic consequences. A FREE LUNCH.</li>
<li>Soft and hard economic indicators in the US are falling, with some alarming numbers in the travel industry.</li>
<li>US companies face potential blowback from Chinese consumers that provide 7% of S&amp;P revenue. </li>
</ul>


The bear market rally in the US stock market continues as investors try to justify the tariffication of global trade and ignore its economic consequences. A FREE LUNCH.
Soft and hard economic indicators in the US are falling, with some alarming numbers in the travel industry.
US companies face potential blowback from Chinese consumers that provide 7% of S&amp;P revenue. 


Don't Swim Naked: TIME TO PUT YOUR SHORTS ON!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A partial disposal of Club Med is positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>. The market is speculating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-investment-ltd-sing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33774:1" rel="noopener">CapitaLand Investment /Sing (CLI SP)</a> is paying EUR500m for a 20-30% stake.</li>
<li>Club Med generated 91.7% of its 1H24 operating profit. The rumoured valuation will boost its value by HK$6.9/share, 1.2x of the share price if true.</li>
<li>We see reasons for such disposal, and if happens, this will align the stock's valuation to international peers - 26.2x for FY24, vs. its 11.3x currently.</li>
</ul>


A partial disposal of Club Med is positive for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK). The market is speculating CapitaLand Investment /Sing (CLI SP) is paying EUR500m for a 20-30% stake.
Club Med generated 91.7% of its 1H24 operating profit. The rumoured valuation will boost its value by HK$6.9/share, 1.2x of the share price if true.
We see reasons for such disposal, and if happens, this will align the stock's valuation to international peers - 26.2x for FY24, vs. its 11.3x currently.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Is Club Med Disposal Happening?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The latest third-quarter earnings performance of Hilton proved to be a mixed bag.</li>
<li>Despite facing certain headwinds, Hilton continues to exhibit strong fundamentals underpinned by its robust business model and strategic initiatives.</li>
<li>However, the results were mixed when considering the softer-than-expected revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth juxtaposed against record-setting hotel openings and partnerships.</li>
</ul>


The latest third-quarter earnings performance of Hilton proved to be a mixed bag.
Despite facing certain headwinds, Hilton continues to exhibit strong fundamentals underpinned by its robust business model and strategic initiatives.
However, the results were mixed when considering the softer-than-expected revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth juxtaposed against record-setting hotel openings and partnerships.


Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: The Story Of Global Expansion and Market Diversification!

<ul>
<li>Hilton, a global hospitality company, reported strong results for the second quarter of 2024, driven by solid revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth, strategic partnerships, and continued expansion in its portfolio.</li>
<li>Christopher Nassetta, President and CEO, highlighted the surpassing of 8,000 global hotels and the addition of new brands, which enhances customer loyalty through an expanded network and RevPAR premiums.</li>
<li>The company remains optimistic about its asset-light and fee-based model, which positions it well for significant cash flow and returns to shareholders.</li>
</ul>


Hilton, a global hospitality company, reported strong results for the second quarter of 2024, driven by solid revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth, strategic partnerships, and continued expansion in its portfolio.
Christopher Nassetta, President and CEO, highlighted the surpassing of 8,000 global hotels and the addition of new brands, which enhances customer loyalty through an expanded network and RevPAR premiums.
The company remains optimistic about its asset-light and fee-based model, which positions it well for significant cash flow and returns to shareholders.


HLT US -  A Story Of Non-RevPAR Driven Revenue & Strategic Brand Diversification!

United States

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services. Hilton Worldwide Holdings owns and manages hotels, resorts, and time share properties worldwide.

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Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT US)

Don't Swim Naked: TIME TO PUT YOUR SHORTS ON!

Bear market rally in US market continues as investors justify the tariffication of global trade but ignore its consequences. US co.s face blowback...

David Mudd

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Is Club Med Disposal Happening?

Fosun Tourism remains suspended, and we are awaiting an announcement. Speculation is that it involves privatisation by its parent, Fosun Intl....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: The Story Of Global Expansion and Market Diversification!

The latest third-quarter earnings performance of Hilton proved to be a mixed bag. Despite facing certain headwinds, Hilton continues to exhibit...

Baptista Research

HLT US - A Story Of Non-RevPAR Driven Revenue & Strategic Brand Diversification!

The company remains optimistic about its asset-light and fee-based model, which positions it well for significant cash flow and returns to...

Baptista Research

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