Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX index in the June 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Roughly a month ago, it <em>looked like</em> there could be more than one index change in the next review. However, this is no longer the case.</li>
<li>We now see <em>only one</em> ADD/DEL for June 2026 and both names have decent index flow impacts. However, our expectations are not final yet.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX index in the June 2026 index rebal event.
Roughly a month ago, it looked like there could be more than one index change in the next review. However, this is no longer the case.
We now see only one ADD/DEL for June 2026 and both names have decent index flow impacts. However, our expectations are not final yet.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: Next-In-Line Names Now Out of the Race; One Change Likely

<ul>
<li>BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India. The next rebalance for this index will take place in June 2026.</li>
<li>We previously expected only one index change. However, there is one more name getting close to the border and our expectations for ADDs/DELs can still change.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs and we explain how sector considerations can play a role in the selection of replacement ADDs.</li>
</ul>


BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India. The next rebalance for this index will take place in June 2026.
We previously expected only one index change. However, there is one more name getting close to the border and our expectations for ADDs/DELs can still change.
In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs and we explain how sector considerations can play a role in the selection of replacement ADDs.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: Sector Consideration Continues to Influence ADDs Choices

<ul>
<li>BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) of India.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX index for the June 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>As things stand, there could be one ADD and one DEL for the BSE SENSEX index.</li>
</ul>


BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) of India.
In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX index for the June 2026 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be one ADD and one DEL for the BSE SENSEX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: One Change Possible; US$357mn One-Way

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.</li>
<li>Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.</li>
<li>Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.</li>
</ul>


Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.
Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.
Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.


Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an Indian aluminium and copper manufacturing company, and a subsidiary of the Aditya Birla Group. It is a major producer of primary aluminium, flat-rolled products, extrusions, and foils, and also manufactures copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1958.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: Next-In-Line Names Now Out of the Race; One Change Likely

We currently estimate one-way flow triggered by the single expected change to be around US$315mn. Both the expected ADD and DEL could each have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: Sector Consideration Continues to Influence ADDs Choices

We see Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) as an expected ADD and Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) as an expected DEL. Separately, Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN) is also...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: One Change Possible; US$357mn One-Way

We estimate one-way flow to be around US$357mn. Both the expected ADD and DEL could have around 5x ADV to trade. There is still time left in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility

Novelis' strong performance and growth in downstream India sectors drive valuation re-rating and potential 44% upside in 24-30 months.

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: Next-In-Line Names Now Out of the Race; One Change Likely

We currently estimate one-way flow triggered by the single expected change to be around US$315mn. Both the expected ADD and DEL could each have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: Sector Consideration Continues to Influence ADDs Choices

We see Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) as an expected ADD and Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) as an expected DEL. Separately, Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN) is also...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: One Change Possible; US$357mn One-Way

We estimate one-way flow to be around US$357mn. Both the expected ADD and DEL could have around 5x ADV to trade. There is still time left in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility

​Novelis' strong performance and growth in downstream India sectors drive valuation re-rating and potential 44% upside in 24-30 months.

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: Next-In-Line Names Now Out of the Race; One Change Likely

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: Sector Consideration Continues to Influence ADDs Choices

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: One Change Possible; US$357mn One-Way

Novelis' strong performance and growth in downstream India sectors drive valuation re-rating and potential 44% upside in 24-30 months.