Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Hindalco Industries is the metals flagship company of Aditya Birla Group. It is the largest primary producers of aluminium in Asia.</li><li>Hindalco operates under three segments – low-cost vertically integrated Aluminum segment (1.3mt), World’s largest rolling and recycling Novelis operations (4mt rolling and 2.5mt recycling facility) and custom copper smelting (0.42mt copper cathodes capacity.</li><li>Easing Upstream Aluminum CoP: In Q1FY24, the cost came down by 2% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries is the metals flagship company of Aditya Birla Group. It is the largest primary producers of aluminium in Asia.Hindalco operates under three segments – low-cost vertically integrated Aluminum segment (1.3mt), World’s largest rolling and recycling Novelis operations (4mt rolling and 2.5mt recycling facility) and custom copper smelting (0.42mt copper cathodes capacity.Easing Upstream Aluminum CoP: In Q1FY24, the cost came down by 2% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week - Hindalco Industries Ltd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.</li><li>Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.</li><li>LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The Consolidated Segmental EBITDA, witnessing a 27% decrease YoY and a 2% increase QoQ, beat our projection by 8%.</li><li>This outperformance was propelled by Indian Aluminium and Copper operations, which demonstrated better-than-anticipated EBITDA due to increased metal sales.</li><li>Although we had accounted for reduced Aluminium shipments and copper sales due to a copper smelter maintenance shutdown, the actual figures beat our estimates by 4% and 19%, respectively, reaching 341kt and 118kt. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Consolidated Segmental EBITDA, witnessing a 27% decrease YoY and a 2% increase QoQ, beat our projection by 8%.This outperformance was propelled by Indian Aluminium and Copper operations, which demonstrated better-than-anticipated EBITDA due to increased metal sales.Although we had accounted for reduced Aluminium shipments and copper sales due to a copper smelter maintenance shutdown, the actual figures beat our estimates by 4% and 19%, respectively, reaching 341kt and 118kt. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Headwinds Bottoming Out; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.</li><li>Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).</li><li>LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Pick of the Week - Hindalco Industries Ltd

Hindalco Industries is the metals flagship company of Aditya Birla Group. It is the largest primary producers of aluminium in Asia.

Axis Direct

Metals & Mining: Q1FY24 Review

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Headwinds Bottoming Out; Maintain BUY

This outperformance was propelled by Indian Aluminium and Copper operations, which demonstrated better-than-anticipated EBITDA due to increased...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and...

Axis Direct

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