Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent). </li>
<li>We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc's</li>
<li>Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.</li>
</ul>


Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent). 
We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc's
Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.


Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

<ul>
<li>Play on rising aluminium demand. Aluminium demand has outpaced supply with strong Chinese demand. </li>
<li>Management has guided better margins at Novelis which faced a temporary drop in margins due to scrap shortages.</li>
<li>Hindalco's Indian operations are fully integrated with captive bauxite, alumina and to certain extent for energy. Trades at a 20%+ discount to its historic PE multiples.</li>
</ul>


Play on rising aluminium demand. Aluminium demand has outpaced supply with strong Chinese demand. 
Management has guided better margins at Novelis which faced a temporary drop in margins due to scrap shortages.
Hindalco's Indian operations are fully integrated with captive bauxite, alumina and to certain extent for energy. Trades at a 20%+ discount to its historic PE multiples.


Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.</li><li>Consolidated EBITDA stood at INR76b (+29% YoY/-4% QoQ), in line with our est. of INR77b, driven by lower costs and operating efficiencies.</li><li>APAT stood at INR38b (+61% YoY/-12% QoQ), in line with our estimate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.Consolidated EBITDA stood at INR76b (+29% YoY/-4% QoQ), in line with our est. of INR77b, driven by lower costs and operating efficiencies.APAT stood at INR38b (+61% YoY/-12% QoQ), in line with our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco - In-Line Performance; Muted Novelis Performance Offset by Strong India Operation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q3FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India upstream AL and copper business.</li><li>Indian business volumes were stable, higher pricing and lower operating cost benefited Q3 performance.</li><li>Mgmt. guided for flattish coal costs for Q4 and expect strong upstream EBITDA/t to continue with ~35% of volumes hedged at USD2,600/t.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q3FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India upstream AL and copper business.Indian business volumes were stable, higher pricing and lower operating cost benefited Q3 performance.Mgmt. guided for flattish coal costs for Q4 and expect strong upstream EBITDA/t to continue with ~35% of volumes hedged at USD2,600/t.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries - Balanced Performance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q3FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates.</li><li>Key points: 1) Consolidated EBITDA rose 30% YoY to INR 76bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division.</li><li>2) HNDL secured 12mtpa Meenakshi coal mine, providing a significant boost to coal security.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q3FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates.Key points: 1) Consolidated EBITDA rose 30% YoY to INR 76bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division.2) HNDL secured 12mtpa Meenakshi coal mine, providing a significant boost to coal security.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries - Growth Vectors in Sight

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco - In-Line Performance; Muted Novelis Performance Offset by Strong India Operation

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.

Motilal Oswal

Hindalco Industries - Balanced Performance

Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q3FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India upstream AL and copper business.

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Hindalco Industries - Growth Vectors in Sight

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q3FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates.Key points: 1) Consolidated EBITDA rose 30% YoY to INR 76bn, mainly due...

ICICI Securities Limited

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

​Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

​Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco - In-Line Performance; Muted Novelis Performance Offset by Strong India Operation

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.

Motilal Oswal

Hindalco Industries - Balanced Performance

Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q3FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India upstream AL and copper business.

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Hindalco Industries - Growth Vectors in Sight

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q3FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates.Key points: 1) Consolidated EBITDA rose 30% YoY to INR 76bn, mainly due...

ICICI Securities Limited

Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...