Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.</li>
<li>Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.</li>
<li>Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. </li>
</ul>


U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. 


Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

Partner at Exencial Research, Exencial Research

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Partner at Exencial Research

Exencial Research

<ul>
<li>
Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a>  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.</li>
<li>
25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.</li>
</ul>



Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.

25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.


The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

<ul>
<li>Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.</li>
<li>Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.</li>
<li>Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.</li>
</ul>


Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.
Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.
Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.


Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In Q4FY25, for Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to higher sales volume and lower coking consumption costs, partially offset by a slight drop in steel price realisations.</li><li>Average HRC price benchmark fell in Q4FY25, down 11%/1% YoY/QoQ, with price recovery taking place only towards the end of Q4FY25.</li><li>We expect Tata Steel and SAIL’s EBITDA to increase on a QoQ basis by 6% and 35% respectively. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q4FY25, for Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to higher sales volume and lower coking consumption costs, partially offset by a slight drop in steel price realisations.Average HRC price benchmark fell in Q4FY25, down 11%/1% YoY/QoQ, with price recovery taking place only towards the end of Q4FY25.We expect Tata Steel and SAIL’s EBITDA to increase on a QoQ basis by 6% and 35% respectively. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Metals and Mining

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Tata Group partners with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> to supply critical EV components, positioning India as a key player in Tesla’s expansion.</li>
<li>India crosses 1 billion tonnes of coal production in FY25, driven by PSUs, private players, and 500,000 workers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> announces a Rs. 45,000 crore investment plan to expand in copper, aluminium, and specialty alumina sectors.</li>
</ul>


Tata Group partners with Tesla (TSLA US) to supply critical EV components, positioning India as a key player in Tesla’s expansion.
India crosses 1 billion tonnes of coal production in FY25, driven by PSUs, private players, and 500,000 workers.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) announces a Rs. 45,000 crore investment plan to expand in copper, aluminium, and specialty alumina sectors.


#125 India Insight: Tata Partners with Tesla, India Hits 1B Coal Tonnes, Hindalco to Invest ₹45K Cr

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Metals and Mining

In Q4FY25, for Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to higher sales volume and...

Axis Direct

#125 India Insight: Tata Partners with Tesla, India Hits 1B Coal Tonnes, Hindalco to Invest ₹45K Cr

Tata Group partners with Tesla to supply EV components, India's coal production hits 1 billion tonnes, Hindalco Industries invests Rs. 45,000...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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52-week Range

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Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

​Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

​Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Metals and Mining

In Q4FY25, for Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to improve QoQ mainly due to higher sales volume and...

Axis Direct

#125 India Insight: Tata Partners with Tesla, India Hits 1B Coal Tonnes, Hindalco to Invest ₹45K Cr

​Tata Group partners with Tesla to supply EV components, India's coal production hits 1 billion tonnes, Hindalco Industries invests Rs. 45,000...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Tata Group partners with Tesla to supply EV components, India's coal production hits 1 billion tonnes, Hindalco Industries invests Rs. 45,000...