Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-agarwal-s-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43984:1" rel="noopener">Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN)</a> raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meesho-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35872:1" rel="noopener">Meesho (MEESHO IN)</a> raised about US$600m in its Dec 2025 India IPO. The lockup on a part of stake of its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Meesho (MEESHO IN) raised about US$600m in its Dec 2025 India IPO. The lockup on a part of stake of its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Meesho Ltd IPO Lockup Expiry - US$5.7bn Lockup Release with PE Investors Well in The Money

Juniper Green Energy Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/juniper-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45455:1" rel="noopener">Juniper Green Energy Ltd (1831458D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$187m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from its earlier estimated size of over US$310m.</li>
<li>Juniper Green Energy Limited (JGEL) is an independent power producer (IPP) engaged in the development, construction, operation, and maintenance of utility-scale renewable energy projects.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates, peer comp and implied valuations in the price range.</li>
</ul>



Juniper Green Energy Ltd (1831458D IN) is looking to raise about US$187m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from its earlier estimated size of over US$310m.
Juniper Green Energy Limited (JGEL) is an independent power producer (IPP) engaged in the development, construction, operation, and maintenance of utility-scale renewable energy projects.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates, peer comp and implied valuations in the price range.


Aequitas: Juniper Green Energy IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

India

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is an Indian state-owned aerospace and defense company that designs, develops, manufactures, and maintains combat aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, jet and turbine engines, avionics, and other hardware. The company also supplies aircraft, helicopters, and communications equipment for military and civil markets and provides related repair and support services. Headquartered in Bengaluru, India, HAL was established on December 23, 1940.

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Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

TPG and Temasek are selling part of their stakes , around 11% of Dr Agarwal Health Care's existing share capital, to raise around US$183m, at a...

Akshat Shah

Aequitas: Meesho Ltd IPO Lockup Expiry - US$5.7bn Lockup Release with PE Investors Well in The Money

A group of investors (Elevation Capital and Peak XV) have launched an INR19bn (US$199m) selldown at a floor price of INR182.08/share, a 5% discount...

Akshat Shah

Aequitas: Juniper Green Energy IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

Juniper Green Energy is looking to raise about US$187m in its downsized India IPO. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and implied...

Akshat Shah

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