Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.</li>
<li>Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.</li>
<li>Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.</li>
</ul>


Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.
Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.
Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.


BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> acquires Aditya Birla’s pulp &amp; paper unit in an all-cash INR 3,498 Cr deal, boosting its market dominance in specialty paperboards and 60% capacity expansion.</li>
<li>GOI hikes APM gas rates by 4% after two years, making CNG and piped cooking gas costlier, impacting households and transport.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN)</a> signs India’s biggest defence deal of Rs. 62,700 Cr to supply 156 Light Combat Helicopters, sending its stock soaring 7%.</li>
</ul>



ITC Ltd (ITC IN) acquires Aditya Birla’s pulp &amp; paper unit in an all-cash INR 3,498 Cr deal, boosting its market dominance in specialty paperboards and 60% capacity expansion.
GOI hikes APM gas rates by 4% after two years, making CNG and piped cooking gas costlier, impacting households and transport.

Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) signs India’s biggest defence deal of Rs. 62,700 Cr to supply 156 Light Combat Helicopters, sending its stock soaring 7%.


#131 India Insight: ITC’s 3.5k Paper Unit Acquisition, GOI 4% AMP Gas Hike, HAL’s Huge Defence Win

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)</a> is looking to raise about INR 85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).</li>
<li>In an announcement released on Feb 13, 2025, BOB mentioned its board’s approval to raise upto INR85bn via various modes including a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 1.2%.</li>
<li>The deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 39 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did not do well.</li>
</ul>



Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) is looking to raise about INR 85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
In an announcement released on Feb 13, 2025, BOB mentioned its board’s approval to raise upto INR85bn via various modes including a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 1.2%.
The deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 39 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did not do well.


Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look - Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.</li>
<li>The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.</li>
<li>Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.


India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

India

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) operates as an aerospace and defense company. The Company designs and manufactures aircraft, helicopter, power plants, inertial navigation system, auto stabilizer, laser range system, flight data recorder, communication equipment, air borne secondary radar, panel instruments, and general forging. HAL serves aerospace industry in India.

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Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN)

BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

Article highlights strong execution and growth prospects for a company with a high-margin defense order book, but warns of a stretched valuation...

Rahul Jain

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

#131 India Insight: ITC’s 3.5k Paper Unit Acquisition, GOI 4% AMP Gas Hike, HAL’s Huge Defence Win

ITC Ltd expands market dominance with acquisition, GOI hikes gas rates impacting households, Hindustan Aeronautics signs major defence deal...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look - Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well

Bank of Baroda (BOB IN) is looking to raise upto INR85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming QIP. In Feb 2025's filing, it mentioned its board’s approval to...

Akshat Shah

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

​Article highlights strong execution and growth prospects for a company with a high-margin defense order book, but warns of a stretched valuation...

Rahul Jain

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

#131 India Insight: ITC’s 3.5k Paper Unit Acquisition, GOI 4% AMP Gas Hike, HAL’s Huge Defence Win

​ITC Ltd expands market dominance with acquisition, GOI hikes gas rates impacting households, Hindustan Aeronautics signs major defence deal...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look - Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well

Bank of Baroda (BOB IN) is looking to raise upto INR85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming QIP. In Feb 2025's filing, it mentioned its board’s approval to...

Akshat Shah

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Article highlights strong execution and growth prospects for a company with a high-margin defense order book, but warns of a stretched valuation...

ITC Ltd expands market dominance with acquisition, GOI hikes gas rates impacting households, Hindustan Aeronautics signs major defence deal...