Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> has committed to a massive INR 30k−35k Crs (3.6−4.2 billion) expansion to double its metal production underpinned by record-low zinc costs and high silver contribution.</li>
<li>This integrated, self-funded capacity doubling effort, coupled with aggressive decarbonization and the high-margin silver tailwind, fundamentally de-risks the long-term earnings trajectory.</li>
<li>While the corporate restructuring remains an overhang, HZL’s strategic shift makes it a compelling, low-cost proxy for India’s industrial growth and the global silver bull cycle.</li>
</ul>



Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) has committed to a massive INR 30k−35k Crs (3.6−4.2 billion) expansion to double its metal production underpinned by record-low zinc costs and high silver contribution.
This integrated, self-funded capacity doubling effort, coupled with aggressive decarbonization and the high-margin silver tailwind, fundamentally de-risks the long-term earnings trajectory.
While the corporate restructuring remains an overhang, HZL’s strategic shift makes it a compelling, low-cost proxy for India’s industrial growth and the global silver bull cycle.


<ul>
<li>Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.</li>
<li>Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.</li>
<li>Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.</li>
</ul>


Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.
Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.
Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.


Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After long-drawn-out underperformance, Indian equities are looking interesting again. Cyclically improving growth, stabilizing currency on the back of several trade deals, policy focus on infrastructure and advanced manufacturing are converging.</li>
<li>High frequency data reveals growth acceleration in consumer discretionary, construction goods, automobiles, electrical goods, base metals. Some of these sectors are reasonably valued in relation to forecast growth and ROE.</li>
<li>We highlight 17 stocks across a range of sectors that have robustly improving earnings estimates, strong growth forecasts, healthy balance sheets, reasonable growth-adjusted valuations. 8 of them are large caps.</li>
</ul>


After long-drawn-out underperformance, Indian equities are looking interesting again. Cyclically improving growth, stabilizing currency on the back of several trade deals, policy focus on infrastructure and advanced manufacturing are converging.
High frequency data reveals growth acceleration in consumer discretionary, construction goods, automobiles, electrical goods, base metals. Some of these sectors are reasonably valued in relation to forecast growth and ROE.
We highlight 17 stocks across a range of sectors that have robustly improving earnings estimates, strong growth forecasts, healthy balance sheets, reasonable growth-adjusted valuations. 8 of them are large caps.


Asian Equities: India - Light at the End of the Tunnel

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

India

Hindustan Zinc is an Indian integrated mining and resources producer, specializing in zinc, lead, and silver, and is the world's second-largest zinc producer and among the top five silver producers globally. The company also engages in captive power generation and manufactures phosphatic fertilizers. Hindustan Zinc is headquartered in Udaipur, Rajasthan, India, and was founded in 1966.

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Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Hindustan Zinc: The Silver Underdog

Silver prices up 48% in past 1 month Among Top 5 Silver producing mines India’s only integrated and listed Silver company Silver contributes over...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Asian Equities: India - Light at the End of the Tunnel

Indian equities are rebounding with improving growth, stabilizing INR & policy focus on infra & mfg. Grth acceleration in cons durables, autos,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Hindustan Zinc: The Silver Underdog

Silver prices up 48% in past 1 month Among Top 5 Silver producing mines India’s only integrated and listed Silver company Silver contributes over...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

​Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Asian Equities: India - Light at the End of the Tunnel

​Indian equities are rebounding with improving growth, stabilizing INR & policy focus on infra & mfg. Grth acceleration in cons durables, autos,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Indian equities are rebounding with improving growth, stabilizing INR & policy focus on infra & mfg. Grth acceleration in cons durables, autos,...

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...