Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.</li>
</ul>


There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.


Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A compelling investment strategy focused on high-quality Japanese equities, selected for strong financial health and growth prospects. This approach targets companies offering stability and long-term appreciation.</li>
<li>The portfolio emphasizes industrial, automation, pharma, and technology hardware sectors, balanced with a tactical volatility trading approach. This strategy aims to enhance returns while managing short-term market fluctuations.</li>
<li>Otsuka Holdings is highlighted as a core pharma pick. Screen and Hirose Electric are strong value picks in manufacturing and electronic tech, contributing to the portfolio's quality and value focus.</li>
</ul>


A compelling investment strategy focused on high-quality Japanese equities, selected for strong financial health and growth prospects. This approach targets companies offering stability and long-term appreciation.
The portfolio emphasizes industrial, automation, pharma, and technology hardware sectors, balanced with a tactical volatility trading approach. This strategy aims to enhance returns while managing short-term market fluctuations.
Otsuka Holdings is highlighted as a core pharma pick. Screen and Hirose Electric are strong value picks in manufacturing and electronic tech, contributing to the portfolio's quality and value focus.


Otsuka, Hirose Electric, Screen, Advantest: The Value Seeker Portfolio and NK Options

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.</li>
<li>Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  </li>
<li>While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.</li>
</ul>


Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.
Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  
While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.


Taiyo Yuden (6976):  A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-pex-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12587:1" rel="noopener">I-PEX (6640 JP)</a> has recommended an MBO at JPY2,950, 85.2% premium to the last close of JPY1,593.</li>
<li>While attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges, it is light due to an implied P/B below 1x and 11% below the mid-point IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>The lack of activists on the register suggests a done deal.  The tender offer runs from 8 November to 19 December (30 business days), with payment commencing from 26 December. </li>
</ul>



I-PEX (6640 JP) has recommended an MBO at JPY2,950, 85.2% premium to the last close of JPY1,593.
While attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges, it is light due to an implied P/B below 1x and 11% below the mid-point IFA DCF valuation range.
The lack of activists on the register suggests a done deal.  The tender offer runs from 8 November to 19 December (30 business days), with payment commencing from 26 December. 


I-PEX (6640 JP): MBO at an 85% Takeover Premium but Implies P/B <1x

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

Japan

HIROSE ELECTRIC CO., LTD. develops and sells electronic equipment, specializing in connectors.  The Company's products include circular, rectangular and ribbon cables, printed circuit boards, integrated circuits, PC cards, nylon boards, and board connectors.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hirose Electric (6806 JP)

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

The close tomorrow should see huge volumes trade on these stocks. Shorts will be covered and longs will be selectively put on.

Brian Freitas

Otsuka, Hirose Electric, Screen, Advantest: The Value Seeker Portfolio and NK Options

High quality value portfolio for stability and long-term growth, with focus on industrial, automation, pharma, technology hardware sectors. Otsuka...

Jay Cameron

Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

I-PEX (6640 JP): MBO at an 85% Takeover Premium but Implies P/B <1x

While attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges, it is light due to an implied P/B below 1x and 11% below the mid-point...

Arun George

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

The close tomorrow should see huge volumes trade on these stocks. Shorts will be covered and longs will be selectively put on.

Brian Freitas

Otsuka, Hirose Electric, Screen, Advantest: The Value Seeker Portfolio and NK Options

High quality value portfolio for stability and long-term growth, with focus on industrial, automation, pharma, technology hardware sectors. Otsuka...

Jay Cameron

Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

​Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

I-PEX (6640 JP): MBO at an 85% Takeover Premium but Implies P/B <1x

While attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges, it is light due to an implied P/B below 1x and 11% below the mid-point...

Arun George

Japan - Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in May. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent of...

Brian Freitas

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...