'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/859/original/2020-09-27_06-54-19.png?1601157286" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161859"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; Tables: Japan Analytics</div>BOTTOMING OUT? - The Japanese markets were only open for three days this week, however, of the manufacturing companies that reported several, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirose-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13513:1" rel="noopener">Hirose Electric (6806 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators (5333 JP)</a> showed signs of a bottoming out in earnings momentum. While some domestic consumer-facing companies are seeing 'boomtown' conditions (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> below) a broader recovery is dependent on the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Although it is early in the reporting cycle, our three metrics that track results and revisions have improved in the last seven days. As the retail-dominated Febru0ry/May/August/November year-end cohort report over the next two week, we shall see further upticks.     • BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is home furnishing retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> and the leisure and travel company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H.I.S. (9603 JP)</a> with a maximum-negative-scoring full-year forecast operating loss of ¥37 billion.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/862/original/2020-09-27_07-19-01.png?1601158772" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161862"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/863/original/2020-09-27_07-20-58.png?1601158948" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161863"></figure><hr>DAILY STATS<hr><div>9 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -3.4 points</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -24.6% Quarter YoY / -12.6% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -5.0ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 67%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 55% Positive / 0% Neutral / 45% Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 12% Neutral / 35% Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.5 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source for all charts &amp; Tables: Japan AnalyticsBOTTOMING OUT? - The Japanese markets were only open for three days this week, however, of the manufacturing companies that reported several, such as Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and NGK Insulators (5333 JP) showed signs of a bottoming out in earnings momentum. While some domestic consumer-facing companies are seeing 'boomtown' conditions (see Nitori (9843 JP) below) a broader recovery is dependent on the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Although it is early in the reporting cycle, our three metrics that track results and revisions have improved in the last seven days. As the retail-dominated Febru0ry/May/August/November year-end cohort report over the next two week, we shall see further upticks.     • BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is home furnishing retailer Nitori (9843 JP) and the leisure and travel company H.I.S. (9603 JP) with a maximum-negative-scoring full-year forecast operating loss of ¥37 billion.DAILY STATS9 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -24.6% Quarter YoY / -12.6% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -5.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 67%
17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 55% Positive / 0% Neutral / 45% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 12% Neutral / 35% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.5 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from yesterday is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirose-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13513:1" rel="noopener">Hirose Electric (6806 JP)</a> with a 41% upward revision to interim operating income, and leisure and travel conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu (9024 JP)</a> which revised down both for the interim and full-year, the latter scoring a maximum negative -30.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/651/original/2020-09-25_06-15-33.png?1600982296" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161651"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/652/original/2020-09-25_06-14-28.png?1600982419" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161652"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>DAILY STATS <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/650/original/2020-09-25_06-07-47.png?1600981686" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161650"></figure><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-corp-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16787:1" rel="noopener">Oracle Japan (4716 JP)</a>- Seasonally, the first quarter is the low point of Oracle's annual cycle following the fourth quarter high. This first quarter was unusually subdued as revenue growth was flat for the second quarter in a row. As revenues slow to a single-digit pace, the company has focused on cost reductions, resulting in a Q1 year-on-year 50bps operating margin improvement. OJ is becoming more of an annuity. As such and noting the ¥225b in Net Financial Assets on the Balance Sheet and no debt, it is time for another extraordinary dividend.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/653/original/2020-09-25_06-29-09.png?1600982967" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161653"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/654/original/2020-09-25_06-28-42.png?1600983014" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161654"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/655/original/2020-09-25_06-33-14.png?1600983265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161655"></figure><hr><div>
 12 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
The trend in forecasts and revisions has turned down again - only four of 25 announcements made yesterday scored positively and the average score change was -11: -
</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 17% Positive / 0% Neutral / 83% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 15% Positive / 8% Neutral / 77% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.2 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from yesterday is Hirose Electric (6806 JP) with a 41% upward revision to interim operating income, and leisure and travel conglomerate Seibu (9024 JP) which revised down both for the interim and full-year, the latter scoring a maximum negative -30.Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS Oracle Japan (4716 JP)- Seasonally, the first quarter is the low point of Oracle's annual cycle following the fourth quarter high. This first quarter was unusually subdued as revenue growth was flat for the second quarter in a row. As revenues slow to a single-digit pace, the company has focused on cost reductions, resulting in a Q1 year-on-year 50bps operating margin improvement. OJ is becoming more of an annuity. As such and noting the ¥225b in Net Financial Assets on the Balance Sheet and no debt, it is time for another extraordinary dividend.
 12 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
The trend in forecasts and revisions has turned down again - only four of 25 announcements made yesterday scored positively and the average score change was -11: -

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 17% Positive / 0% Neutral / 83% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 15% Positive / 8% Neutral / 77% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.2 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​​​​​24 - A Quieter Oracle, Hirose, Shippers, NGK, Seibu

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. In addition, company data is cap-weight aggregated into Peer Group and Sector Relative Price Scores which can be used for allocation and timing. This insight will cover Sectors and Peer Groups; a forthcoming insight will update the list of overbought and oversold companies.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/735/original/2018-09-11SML2.png?1536816473" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERBOUGHT &amp; OVERSOLD SECTORS - Currently, three Sectors (Commercial Services, Consumer Services and Healthcare) are overbought, and two (Banks and Utilities) are oversold in terms of Relative Price Score.<div class="content-highlight">SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most-preferred sectors remain Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology. Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities. Our sector recommendations have an implicit 4 'unit' market short by being overweight five sectors and underweight nine and have 'outperformed' (gross of implementation costs) by 11.3% over the last three months and by 3.5% over the last month.</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/737/original/2018-09-13_14-33-09.png?1536816871" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63737"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERBOUGHT PEER GROUPS - Currently, seventeen Peer Groups are 'overbought'.  Nine Peer Groups that were overbought at the end of May are no longer so - Beers, Wines &amp; Spirits, Paints, Safety Equipment, Wholesale-Household Equipment, Wholesale-Transport Equipment, Real Estate-Other Services, Software-Accounting &amp; Finance, Accounting Services and Investment Banking Services. Four Peer Groups have become overbought in the last three months - Telecom Engineering, IT Systems-Financial, Software-Development Services and Employment &amp; Staffing Services.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/738/original/2018-09-13_14-36-04.png?1536816987" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63738"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERSOLD PEER GROUPS - Currently ten Peer Groups are 'oversold'. The Kanto Regional Banks and Industrial REITs Peer Groups have become oversold in this period while the Kyushu Regional Banks, Retail REITs and Marine Transportation Peer Groups are no longer oversold. <div class="content-highlight">PEER GROUP RECOMMENDATIONS - Long and short recommendations for both overbought and oversold Peer Groups as well as lists of most and least preferred Peer Groups and suggested longs and shorts for some of each of those are detailed below. </div>

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. In addition, company data is cap-weight aggregated into Peer Group and Sector Relative Price Scores which can be used for allocation and timing. This insight will cover Sectors and Peer Groups; a forthcoming insight will update the list of overbought and oversold companies.Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERBOUGHT &amp; OVERSOLD SECTORS - Currently, three Sectors (Commercial Services, Consumer Services and Healthcare) are overbought, and two (Banks and Utilities) are oversold in terms of Relative Price Score.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most-preferred sectors remain Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology. Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities. Our sector recommendations have an implicit 4 'unit' market short by being overweight five sectors and underweight nine and have 'outperformed' (gross of implementation costs) by 11.3% over the last three months and by 3.5% over the last month.Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERBOUGHT PEER GROUPS - Currently, seventeen Peer Groups are 'overbought'.  Nine Peer Groups that were overbought at the end of May are no longer so - Beers, Wines &amp; Spirits, Paints, Safety Equipment, Wholesale-Household Equipment, Wholesale-Transport Equipment, Real Estate-Other Services, Software-Accounting &amp; Finance, Accounting Services and Investment Banking Services. Four Peer Groups have become overbought in the last three months - Telecom Engineering, IT Systems-Financial, Software-Development Services and Employment &amp; Staffing Services.Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERSOLD PEER GROUPS - Currently ten Peer Groups are 'oversold'. The Kanto Regional Banks and Industrial REITs Peer Groups have become oversold in this period while the Kyushu Regional Banks, Retail REITs and Marine Transportation Peer Groups are no longer oversold. PEER GROUP RECOMMENDATIONS - Long and short recommendations for both overbought and oversold Peer Groups as well as lists of most and least preferred Peer Groups and suggested longs and shorts for some of each of those are detailed below. 

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Sectors & Peer Groups

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

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Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Over the last month, 9 companies have been upgraded by 2 or more analyst. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5415" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> is the largest by mkt-cap to make the list and one of only two to get 3 upgrades. Now 18 out of 21 recommendations are BUY for Nintendo.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11649" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> are other large-cap names that had 2 or more upgrades over the last month. Eisai had 3 upgrades, however it was also downgraded by two analysts over the same time frame. …

Over the last month, 9 companies have been upgraded by 2 or more analyst. Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) is the largest by mkt-cap to make the list and one of only two to get 3 upgrades. Now 18 out of 21 recommendations are BUY for Nintendo.Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) are other large-cap names that had 2 or more upgrades over the last month. Eisai had 3 upgrades, however it was also downgraded by two analysts over the same time frame. …

Most Popular / Unpopular Names in Japan over Last Month. Nintendo Made the Good List....

Japan

HIROSE ELECTRIC CO., LTD. develops and sells electronic equipment, specializing in connectors.  The Company's products include circular, rectangular and ribbon cables, printed circuit boards, integrated circuits, PC cards, nylon boards, and board connectors.

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Hirose Electric (6806 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

• BEST WORST •

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/24 - A Quieter Oracle, Hirose, Shippers, NGK, Seibu

• BEST WORST • DAILY STATS

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Sectors & Peer Groups

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Most Popular / Unpopular Names in Japan over Last Month. Nintendo Made the Good List....

Over the last month, 9 companies have been upgraded by 2 or more analyst. Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) is the largest by mkt-cap to make the list and...

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

• BEST WORST •

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​​​​​24 - A Quieter Oracle, Hirose, Shippers, NGK, Seibu

• BEST WORST • DAILY STATS

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Sectors & Peer Groups

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Most Popular / Unpopular Names in Japan over Last Month. Nintendo Made the Good List....

Over the last month, 9 companies have been upgraded by 2 or more analyst. Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) is the largest by mkt-cap to make the list and...

Custom Products Group

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/24 - A Quieter Oracle, Hirose, Shippers, NGK, Seibu