'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Tuesday saw only one result posted for loss-making micro-cap building materials company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danto-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2961:1" rel="noopener">Danto (5337 JP)</a>, who also forecast a return to break-even for FY22. Elsewhere, there were fifteen 'irregular' forecast revisions, of which eleven scored positively.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP)</a>, the only larger-cap company announcing was one of the three 'losers'.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/625/original/2021-03-24_06-39-31.png?1616535589" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196625"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/634/original/image?1616537912" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196634"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

Tuesday saw only one result posted for loss-making micro-cap building materials company Danto (5337 JP), who also forecast a return to break-even for FY22. Elsewhere, there were fifteen 'irregular' forecast revisions, of which eleven scored positively.Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP), the only larger-cap company announcing was one of the three 'losers'.Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​23 - No Relief for Hisamitsu

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>At its Monetary Policy Meeting that concluded on 19 March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that they would purchase ETFs and J-REIT as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen and about 180 billion yen respectively. While the upper limits were originally set as a temporary measure in response to the impact of COVID-19, the Bank will maintain them even after COVID-19 subsides.</p><p>The big change was the announcement that the BOJ would only purchase ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a>. This means no more flows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.</p><p>From the increase in ETF AUM over calendar year 2020, we estimate that around 88% of the BOJ buying went into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> ETFs, with smaller amounts going into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.</p><p>While the impact of BOJ only buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> linked ETFs is not material for single stocks in ADV terms, there could be a bigger impact on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> constituents if other NKY ETF holders redeem their units and sell the underlying shares.</p><p>The NT ratio (NKY/TPX) had started to move lower over the last 15 trading days due to the shift from growth to value stocks. The BOJ announcement could take the ratio lower in the short term on a change in sentiment and short term flows due to repositioning of portfolios.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-chemical-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4102:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Chemical Industries (4021 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comsys-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20548:1" rel="noopener">Comsys Holdings (1721 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/konami-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13236:1" rel="noopener">Konami Holdings (9766 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1" rel="noopener">Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will be among the most negatively affected stocks, but the impact is quite small.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> stocks (that will have passive BOJ inflows of at least US$5m) that will have the largest impact in terms of ADV to trade are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13058:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kintetsu-group-holdings-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18507:1" rel="noopener">Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a>. </p>

At its Monetary Policy Meeting that concluded on 19 March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that they would purchase ETFs and J-REIT as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen and about 180 billion yen respectively. While the upper limits were originally set as a temporary measure in response to the impact of COVID-19, the Bank will maintain them even after COVID-19 subsides.The big change was the announcement that the BOJ would only purchase ETFs tracking the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX). This means no more flows to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.From the increase in ETF AUM over calendar year 2020, we estimate that around 88% of the BOJ buying went into Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) ETFs, with smaller amounts going into the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.While the impact of BOJ only buying Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) linked ETFs is not material for single stocks in ADV terms, there could be a bigger impact on the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) constituents if other NKY ETF holders redeem their units and sell the underlying shares.The NT ratio (NKY/TPX) had started to move lower over the last 15 trading days due to the shift from growth to value stocks. The BOJ announcement could take the ratio lower in the short term on a change in sentiment and short term flows due to repositioning of portfolios.Nissan Chemical Industries (4021 JP), Comsys Holdings (1721 JP), Konami Holdings (9766 JP), Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP) and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will be among the most negatively affected stocks, but the impact is quite small.Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) stocks (that will have passive BOJ inflows of at least US$5m) that will have the largest impact in terms of ADV to trade are Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP), Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP), Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP), Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP) and Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP). 

BOJ Buying to Focus on TOPIX ETFs: Big Headline, Smaller Impact

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; (3382 JP)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/154/original/2020-10-09_05-45-20.png?1602189939" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164154"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/155/original/2020-10-09_05-46-28.png?1602190006" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164155"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>26 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 0% Neutral / 54% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.0% Quarter YoY / -0.1% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.2ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 19%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>18 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 33% Positive / 6% Neutral / 61% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.6 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Seven &amp; (3382 JP)  and Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
26 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 46% Positive / 0% Neutral / 54% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -2.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -3.0% Quarter YoY / -0.1% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.2ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%
18 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 6% Neutral / 61% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.6 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/​​​​​​​​​08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/201/original/File%202020-07-10%204%2058%2031.jpeg?1594328270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145201"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Our World In Data</div>
<p><strong>COVID-19 RETURNS</strong> - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of<strong> 224</strong> and a three-month nationwide high of <strong>354</strong>. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/202/original/2020-07-10_06-33-39.png?1594330447" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145202"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/203/original/2020-07-10_06-37-00.png?1594330642" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145203"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>NEW LOWS</strong> - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>31 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -4.9</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: </strong>-0.9ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.5</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Our World In Data
COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month nationwide high of 354. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.
Source • Japan Analytics
NEW LOWS - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.
DAILY STATS
31 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.9

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.9ppt
 12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.5


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>The laundry list of current market conditions consistent with the profile of a bull market continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief that global equities are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. We explore and highlight actionable investment themes and opportunities across the EM space and within materials, Energy, Manufacturing, Health care and Apparel/Luxury Goods</p>

The laundry list of current market conditions consistent with the profile of a bull market continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief that global equities are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. We explore and highlight actionable investment themes and opportunities across the EM space and within materials, Energy, Manufacturing, Health care and Apparel/Luxury Goods

Japan

HISAMITSU PHARMACEUTICAL CO., INC. produces and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company's main product is anti-inflammatory analgesic plasters and poultices sold under the brand name Salonpas.  Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical exports its products to North America and Southeast Asia.  The Company also researches and develops antibacterial products through its related company, RRF.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/23 - No Relief for Hisamitsu

Tuesday saw only one result posted for loss-making micro-cap Danto (5337 JP). Elsewhere, there were fifteen 'irregular' forecast revisions, of...

Campbell Gunn

BOJ Buying to Focus on TOPIX ETFs: Big Headline, Smaller Impact

The BOJ will only buy ETFs linked to the TOPIX going forward. While this makes for a big headline, the impact on the stocks is much more muted....

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai

• BEST & WORST • The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is DAILY STATS 21 Quarterly Results Results Score: 62%...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month...

Campbell Gunn

EM Breakout -- Add Exposure

The laundry list of current market conditions consistent with the profile of a bull market continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​23 - No Relief for Hisamitsu

Tuesday saw only one result posted for loss-making micro-cap Danto (5337 JP). Elsewhere, there were fifteen 'irregular' forecast revisions, of...

Campbell Gunn

BOJ Buying to Focus on TOPIX ETFs: Big Headline, Smaller Impact

The BOJ will only buy ETFs linked to the TOPIX going forward. While this makes for a big headline, the impact on the stocks is much more muted....

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/​​​​​​​​​08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai

• BEST & WORST • The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is DAILY STATS 21 Quarterly Results Results Score: 62%...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month...

Campbell Gunn

EM Breakout -- Add Exposure

The laundry list of current market conditions consistent with the profile of a bull market continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/23 - No Relief for Hisamitsu

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions: 10/08 - Shift, Seven&I/Lawson, Hisamitsu, Nippon Shokubai