Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (6 Oct 2026)

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.</li>
<li>Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.</li>
<li>The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.</li>
</ul>


The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.
Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.
The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.


Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Leadership globally is rotating to cyclical, materials, and commodity sectors</li>
<li>Japan lacks many pure play companies, so premiums will be commanded</li>
<li>We add a couple of cyclical names to increase Japanese exposure</li>
</ul>


Leadership globally is rotating to cyclical, materials, and commodity sectors
Japan lacks many pure play companies, so premiums will be commanded
We add a couple of cyclical names to increase Japanese exposure


Tactical Trading – Increasing Cyclical Exposure in Japan

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.</li>
<li>Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.</li>
<li>Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.</li>
</ul>


Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.
Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.
Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Japan

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

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Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)

Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (6 Oct 2026)

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Tactical Trading – Increasing Cyclical Exposure in Japan

Mitsubishi 8058.T rallied 8% yesterday with other potential beneficiaries of the Trump-Takaichi summit. Nikkei link below. Key is the development...

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (6 Oct 2026)

​Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Tactical Trading – Increasing Cyclical Exposure in Japan

Mitsubishi 8058.T rallied 8% yesterday with other potential beneficiaries of the Trump-Takaichi summit. Nikkei link below. Key is the development...

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

​AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.