Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> EGM where activist Oasis Management wanted to spill the independent board members took place Friday.</li>
<li>Results were mixed, but generally a success for Oasis, with 9 of the 13 votes won. Preliminary analysis of "uncertain voter" split interesting, and "Glass Lewis Effect" stronger than expected.</li>
<li>The real shocker, however, was a footnote at the end of the announcement. This could (and <em>should</em>) have further repercussions. </li>
</ul>


The Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) EGM where activist Oasis Management wanted to spill the independent board members took place Friday.
Results were mixed, but generally a success for Oasis, with 9 of the 13 votes won. Preliminary analysis of "uncertain voter" split interesting, and "Glass Lewis Effect" stronger than expected.
The real shocker, however, was a footnote at the end of the announcement. This could (and should) have further repercussions. 


Fujitec (6406) EGM - It WAS a Close-Run Thing, Glass Lewis Was the Big Winner, and SCANDAL?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>At the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> EGM, Oasis successfully secured approval for four out of six candidates for outside directors. The tight vote shows that shareholders desire change.</li>
<li>Oasis fell short of its nominations constituting up to two-thirds of the Board. However, Oasis-aligned directors will represent 67% of outside directors which still can drive meaningful change.</li>
<li>The EGM results will spur optimism that Fujitec can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a rerating. Fujitec remains attractive on a cash-adjusted P/E basis.    </li>
</ul>


At the Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) EGM, Oasis successfully secured approval for four out of six candidates for outside directors. The tight vote shows that shareholders desire change.
Oasis fell short of its nominations constituting up to two-thirds of the Board. However, Oasis-aligned directors will represent 67% of outside directors which still can drive meaningful change.
The EGM results will spur optimism that Fujitec can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a rerating. Fujitec remains attractive on a cash-adjusted P/E basis.    


Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis Scores a Victory in a Tight EGM Vote

<ul>
<li>Oasis proposals to restructure the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> Board which will be voted on at the 24 February EGM have got independent proxy advisor, ISS, support.</li>
<li>An Oasis win would renew enthusiasm that Fujitec can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a catalyst for the rerating of the shares.</li>
<li>An Oasis loss is not disastrous as Oasis could come back or Fujitec would likely offer a premium to buyout Oasis. Fujitec is also cheap on a cash-adjusted P/E basis.</li>
</ul>


Oasis proposals to restructure the Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) Board which will be voted on at the 24 February EGM have got independent proxy advisor, ISS, support.
An Oasis win would renew enthusiasm that Fujitec can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a catalyst for the rerating of the shares.
An Oasis loss is not disastrous as Oasis could come back or Fujitec would likely offer a premium to buyout Oasis. Fujitec is also cheap on a cash-adjusted P/E basis.


Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis’ Activism Comes to a Head of the 24 February EGM

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japanese-consortium-makes-final-offer-on-Toshiba-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>’s Board.</li>
<li>Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).</li>
<li>The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)’s Board.
Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).
The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

Japan

Hitachi, Ltd. manufactures communications and electronic equipment, heavy electrical and industrial machinery, and consumer electronics.  The Company's diverse product line ranges from nuclear power systems to kitchen appliances. Hitachi also operates subsidiaries in the wire and cable, metal, and chemical industries.

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Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

Fujitec (6406) EGM - It WAS a Close-Run Thing, Glass Lewis Was the Big Winner, and SCANDAL?

The Fujitec EGM was, indeed, a close-run thing. A tight vote, and Oasis' losers clearly showed passive voting against. And there was a scandalous...

Travis Lundy

Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis Scores a Victory in a Tight EGM Vote

The EGM results will spur optimism that the newly constructed Board can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a rerating. Fujitec...

Arun George

Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis’ Activism Comes to a Head of the 24 February EGM

Fujitec is trading at an undemanding cash-adjusted P/E multiple. This provides downside protection should Oasis prove unsuccessful at the upcoming...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to...

Arun George

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