Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.</li>
<li>Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.</li>
<li>For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.</li>
</ul>


The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.
Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.
For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.


Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/859/original/2020-09-27_06-54-19.png?1601157286" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161859"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; Tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>BOTTOMING OUT?</strong> - The Japanese markets were only open for three days this week, however, of the manufacturing companies that reported several, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirose-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13513:1" rel="noopener">Hirose Electric (6806 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators (5333 JP)</a> showed signs of a bottoming out in earnings momentum. While some domestic consumer-facing companies are seeing 'boomtown' conditions (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> below) a broader recovery is dependent on the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Although it is early in the reporting cycle, our three metrics that track results and revisions have improved in the last seven days. As the retail-dominated Febru0ry/May/August/November year-end cohort report over the next two week, we shall see further upticks.     </p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is home furnishing retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> and the leisure and travel company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H.I.S. (9603 JP)</a> with a maximum-negative-scoring full-year forecast operating loss of ¥37 billion.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/862/original/2020-09-27_07-19-01.png?1601158772" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161862"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/863/original/2020-09-27_07-20-58.png?1601158948" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161863"></figure><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>9 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -24.6% Quarter YoY / -12.6% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -5.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 67%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 55% Positive / 0% Neutral / 45% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 12% Neutral / 35% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> +0.5 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source for all charts &amp; Tables: Japan AnalyticsBOTTOMING OUT? - The Japanese markets were only open for three days this week, however, of the manufacturing companies that reported several, such as Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and NGK Insulators (5333 JP) showed signs of a bottoming out in earnings momentum. While some domestic consumer-facing companies are seeing 'boomtown' conditions (see Nitori (9843 JP) below) a broader recovery is dependent on the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Although it is early in the reporting cycle, our three metrics that track results and revisions have improved in the last seven days. As the retail-dominated Febru0ry/May/August/November year-end cohort report over the next two week, we shall see further upticks.     • BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is home furnishing retailer Nitori (9843 JP) and the leisure and travel company H.I.S. (9603 JP) with a maximum-negative-scoring full-year forecast operating loss of ¥37 billion.DAILY STATS9 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -24.6% Quarter YoY / -12.6% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -5.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 67%
17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 55% Positive / 0% Neutral / 45% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 12% Neutral / 35% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.5 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

<p><strong>FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS</strong> -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-2-operating-cash-flow-accruals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40321" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/225/original/2020-06-21_08-34-07.png?1592698079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141225"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>JAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4..</strong> - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener"> Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/223/original/2020-06-21_08-51-12.png?1592697088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141223"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD</strong> - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.</p>

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.Source: Japan AnalyticsJAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4.. - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.Source: Japan Analytics..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   In the DETAIL below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$580m via a ~7% stake sale in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Hitachi Construction Machinery Co (HCMC) is a Japanese company that designs, manufactures, sells, and services construction and mining equipment.</li>
<li>In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) aims to raise around US$580m via a ~7% stake sale in Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP).
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co (HCMC) is a Japanese company that designs, manufactures, sells, and services construction and mining equipment.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Aequitas: Hitachi Construction Machinery Block - Another Selldown by Hitachi Right At Lockup Expiry

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

<p>On the 4th of February the Nikkei <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Deals/Toyota-near-tie-up-with-Suzuki-on-development-procurement" target="_blank">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/732" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1">Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP)</a> were in discussions regarding an alliance on development and procurement. This was confirmed by the companies today with the statement that the broad terms of the deal have been agreed upon. The move continues a series of tie-ups conducted by Toyota in recent years and could place pressure on other players to seek similar tie-ups. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20528" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20528:1">Mazda Motor Corp (7261 JP)</a> may feel particularly pressured…</p>

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an alliance on development and procurement. This was confirmed by the companies today with the statement that the broad terms of the deal have been agreed upon. The move continues a series of tie-ups conducted by Toyota in recent years and could place pressure on other players to seek similar tie-ups. Mazda Motor Corp (7261 JP) may feel particularly pressured…

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

Japan

Hitachi Transport System, Ltd. provides freight truck, port harbor, and marine transportation, logistics, cargo handling, warehousing, and customs clearing services.  The Company mainly transports Hitachi Ltd's freight such as industrial machinery and precision equipment.

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Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)

Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

• BEST WORST •

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS - Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between...

Campbell Gunn

Aequitas: Hitachi Construction Machinery Block - Another Selldown by Hitachi Right At Lockup Expiry

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) aims to raise around US$580m via a ~7% stake sale in Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. In this note we talk about the deal...

Akshat Shah

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an...

Mio Kato

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52-week Range

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Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

​The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

• BEST WORST •

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS - Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between...

Campbell Gunn

Aequitas: Hitachi Construction Machinery Block - Another Selldown by Hitachi Right At Lockup Expiry

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) aims to raise around US$580m via a ~7% stake sale in Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. In this note we talk about the deal...

Akshat Shah

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an...

Mio Kato

The 2024 problem in Japan will disrupt logistics, increasing costs for major firms but they are finding solutions to minimize the impact and...