Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We recommend taking advantage of recent weakness -- where applicable -- by adding exposure to cyclical Sectors. Today’s recommendations focus on autos, auto parts, and machinery which span the Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors.

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We recommend taking advantage of recent weakness -- where applicable -- by adding exposure to cyclical Sectors. Today’s recommendations focus on autos, auto parts, and machinery which span the Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors. 

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11938" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11938:1">Nippon Thompson Co Ltd (6480 JP)</a> is a small cap (JPY72bn market cap) and trades about USD2.5m per day in normal times but has been on a tear recently, hitting its 52 week high and up 21% in the six days since it announced earnings. The company is one of the purer linear motion guide names (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19572" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19572:1">Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6797:1">Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049 TT)</a> are the others) but has been lagging the much bigger THK in terms of margins recently, despite a very tight historical correlation. Nippon Thompson…

Nippon Thompson Co Ltd (6480 JP) is a small cap (JPY72bn market cap) and trades about USD2.5m per day in normal times but has been on a tear recently, hitting its 52 week high and up 21% in the six days since it announced earnings. The company is one of the purer linear motion guide names (Thk Co Ltd (6481 JP) and Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049 TT) are the others) but has been lagging the much bigger THK in terms of margins recently, despite a very tight historical correlation. Nippon Thompson…

Nippon Thompson: Outperforms THK by 15% in 6 Days - Inventory Efficiency May Continue This Trend

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul><li>High level of cash sales, capable of funding growth internally, and improving asset turnover relative to its sector</li><li>Robust demand from global machinery market and tight supply allows for strong order backlog and rising prices, revenue up 31% YoY in 4Q17</li><li>Capacity should increase by 20-30% to meet demand from new plants in Chaiyi and Taichung to start operation in 2Q18</li><li>Stock is attractive at 18CE* PEG ratio of 1.1 relative to Asian Capital Goods at a PEG ratio of 2.1</li><li>Risk: Rapid industry capacity expansion could lead to oversupply</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

High level of cash sales, capable of funding growth internally, and improving asset turnover relative to its sectorRobust demand from global machinery market and tight supply allows for strong order backlog and rising prices, revenue up 31% YoY in 4Q17Capacity should increase by 20-30% to meet demand from new plants in Chaiyi and Taichung to start operation in 2Q18Stock is attractive at 18CE* PEG ratio of 1.1 relative to Asian Capital Goods at a PEG ratio of 2.1Risk: Rapid industry capacity expansion could lead to oversupply* Consensus Estimates

HIWIN (2049 TT): Robust Demand from Global Machinery Market

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets remain leadership. While many of the world's developed markets in correction or consolidation mode, EM markets continue to remain immune to the disruption occurring elsewhere.  Price and relative strength uptrends intact remain, and we reiterate our overweight recommendation.  In today’s report we provide a collection of the better looking company charts across the emerging markets universe.

Emerging markets remain leadership. While many of the world's developed markets in correction or consolidation mode, EM markets continue to remain immune to the disruption occurring elsewhere.  Price and relative strength uptrends intact remain, and we reiterate our overweight recommendation.  In today’s report we provide a collection of the better looking company charts across the emerging markets universe.

Taiwan

Hiwin Technologies Corp. researches, develops, designs, manufactures, sells, and maintains ball screws and linear guideways. The Company also provides linear bearings, linear motor system, linear actuator, positioning measurement system, and other linear motion products.

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Hiwin Technologies (2049 TT)

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We...

Vermilion Research

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally....

Vermilion Research

Nippon Thompson: Outperforms THK by 15% in 6 Days - Inventory Efficiency May Continue This Trend

Nippon Thompson Co Ltd (6480 JP) is a small cap (JPY72bn market cap) and trades about USD2.5m per day in normal times but has been on a tear...

Mio Kato

HIWIN (2049 TT): Robust Demand from Global Machinery Market

High level of cash sales, capable of funding growth internally, and improving asset turnover relative to its sector Robust demand from global...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Attractive EM Charts

Emerging markets remain leadership. While many of the world's developed markets in correction or consolidation mode, EM markets continue to remain...

Vermilion Research

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