Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite this pattern persisting for years, there has still been a significant price impact each time it surfaces. Therefore, we should pay attention to the upcoming CB conversion schedule.</li>
<li>A consistent observation is that the price impact is most significant at the announcement of early redemption requests.</li>
<li>The anticipated announcement dates for the forthcoming early redemption requests are: around May 20th (195th conversion), around September 20th (196th conversion), and around March 20th of next year (197th conversion).</li>
</ul>


Despite this pattern persisting for years, there has still been a significant price impact each time it surfaces. Therefore, we should pay attention to the upcoming CB conversion schedule.
A consistent observation is that the price impact is most significant at the announcement of early redemption requests.
The anticipated announcement dates for the forthcoming early redemption requests are: around May 20th (195th conversion), around September 20th (196th conversion), and around March 20th of next year (197th conversion).


Find Out When HMM's Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop

<ul>
<li>Should the stock conversion decision be reached this week, the new shares will be listed on the 15th of the upcoming month. So, they will officially debut on October 16th.</li>
<li>On the day of the new share listing during the immediate previous case, the price dropped by 2.36%, and on the very next trading day, it declined by 3.72%.</li>
<li>Given the present dilution rate of 30%, there is a higher probability of even more pronounced price movements in the same direction.</li>
</ul>


Should the stock conversion decision be reached this week, the new shares will be listed on the 15th of the upcoming month. So, they will officially debut on October 16th.
On the day of the new share listing during the immediate previous case, the price dropped by 2.36%, and on the very next trading day, it declined by 3.72%.
Given the present dilution rate of 30%, there is a higher probability of even more pronounced price movements in the same direction.


Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM's New Stock Listing Date

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 21 August, it was reported that Harim Group, Dongwon Group, LX Group, and Hapag-Lloyd have been short-listed as preliminary bidders for HMM.</li>
<li>KDB and KOBC are selling 38.9% stake in HMM on a fully diluted basis. The local media have mentioned that the potential sales price could be about 5-6 trillion won.</li>
<li>We continue to have a Negative view of HMM. e expect additional 20-30%+ downside risk over the next 6-12 months.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 21 August, it was reported that Harim Group, Dongwon Group, LX Group, and Hapag-Lloyd have been short-listed as preliminary bidders for HMM.
KDB and KOBC are selling 38.9% stake in HMM on a fully diluted basis. The local media have mentioned that the potential sales price could be about 5-6 trillion won.
We continue to have a Negative view of HMM. e expect additional 20-30%+ downside risk over the next 6-12 months.


Privatization of HMM: Hapag-Lloyd, Harim, Dongwon, and LX Groups [Short-Listed Bidding Candidates]

<ul>
<li>The Korean government has initiated the M&amp;A privatization of HMM, the largest container shipping company in Korea. </li>
<li>We are Negative on the shares of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) in the next 6-12 months. We expect additional 20% to 30%+ downside risk on HMM in this period.</li>
<li>Although HMM has a strong balance sheet, more investors are likely to emphasize on the negatives including excessive share dilution risk and worsening environment for the global shipping industry.</li>
</ul>


The Korean government has initiated the M&amp;A privatization of HMM, the largest container shipping company in Korea. 
We are Negative on the shares of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) in the next 6-12 months. We expect additional 20% to 30%+ downside risk on HMM in this period.
Although HMM has a strong balance sheet, more investors are likely to emphasize on the negatives including excessive share dilution risk and worsening environment for the global shipping industry.


Privatization of HMM: Enormous Shares Dilution Risk

<ul>
<li>Those that the local market is particularly interested in are the 192nd convertible bonds (CB) held by KDB, along with the 193rd bonds with warrants (BW) owned by KOBC.</li>
<li>These two bonds' call option exercise date is September 25th. Upon conversion of these bonds, 200M new shares will be issued (41% of SO and a 30% dilution).</li>
<li>The key is the trade-off between not disrupting the selling process and avoiding any breach of trust. The prevailing local sentiment suggests that KDB and KOBC will choose stock conversion.</li>
</ul>


Those that the local market is particularly interested in are the 192nd convertible bonds (CB) held by KDB, along with the 193rd bonds with warrants (BW) owned by KOBC.
These two bonds' call option exercise date is September 25th. Upon conversion of these bonds, 200M new shares will be issued (41% of SO and a 30% dilution).
The key is the trade-off between not disrupting the selling process and avoiding any breach of trust. The prevailing local sentiment suggests that KDB and KOBC will choose stock conversion.


Investigating HMM's Latest Bond Conversion Situation for a Shorting Setup

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Find Out When HMM's Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop

This post aims to pinpoint the anticipated timing of future early redemption requests by HMM, leveraging insights gleaned from the announcement...

Sanghyun Park

Seizing a Trading Opportunity Aimed at HMM's New Stock Listing Date

The disclosure confirms HMM's 200M new shares will list on November 10th, derived from the conversion of KDB and KOBC's BW/CB holdings. The listing...

Sanghyun Park

Privatization of HMM: Hapag-Lloyd, Harim, Dongwon, and LX Groups [Short-Listed Bidding Candidates]

Kim Jae-cheol, the honorary chairman of Dongwon Group, expressed his determination to acquire HMM today, saying, “I think the acquisition of HMM is...

Douglas Kim

Privatization of HMM: Enormous Shares Dilution Risk

The Korean government has initiated the privatization of HMM, the largest container shipping company in Korea. We are Negative on the shares of HMM...

Douglas Kim

Investigating HMM's Latest Bond Conversion Situation for a Shorting Setup

This post explores how HMM's latest bond conversion situation sets the stage for a shorting setup aimed at late September this year.

Sanghyun Park