Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years</li>
<li>A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted</li>
<li>Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025</li>
</ul>


November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years
A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted
Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum softened dramatically in October, mirroring steep declines in H221, FY22</li>
<li>We believe price momentum, rather than earnings, drives medium-term share performance</li>
<li>Reaction to ZIM's stellar Q324 results &amp; guidance raise suggests more downside ahead</li>
</ul>


Price momentum softened dramatically in October, mirroring steep declines in H221, FY22
We believe price momentum, rather than earnings, drives medium-term share performance
Reaction to ZIM's stellar Q324 results &amp; guidance raise suggests more downside ahead


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Price Momentum Softens | CMP-ZIM L/S Pair Idea (November 2024)

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 </li>
<li>Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash</li>
<li>We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more</li>
</ul>


Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 
Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash
We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more


TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

<ul>
<li>We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term</li>
<li>Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum</li>
<li>Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price</li>
</ul>


We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term
Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum
Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price


Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Thanks to the Series 196 CB conversions and leftover action, we're seeing a 10%p dip this time around.</li>
<li>The stock will price in the change from around 2 PM Tuesday, Nov 12, with 15 billion KRW outflow, that is roughly -0.74x of the ADTV.</li>
<li>Lately, flow events are getting tipped off more, leading to aggressive pre-positioning. I’ll monitor HMM’s price and volume Monday, then decide if I’ll target Tuesday’s passive outflow.</li>
</ul>


Thanks to the Series 196 CB conversions and leftover action, we're seeing a 10%p dip this time around.
The stock will price in the change from around 2 PM Tuesday, Nov 12, with 15 billion KRW outflow, that is roughly -0.74x of the ADTV.
Lately, flow events are getting tipped off more, leading to aggressive pre-positioning. I’ll monitor HMM’s price and volume Monday, then decide if I’ll target Tuesday’s passive outflow.


Estimating the Passive Impact of HMM’s KOSPI 200 Float Rate Cut, Going into Effect on Nov 13

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

Container rates continued to soften in November, and 2024's Q4 seasonal decline from the Summer peak has been the second-steepest in the past 12...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Price Momentum Softens | CMP-ZIM L/S Pair Idea (November 2024)

Container price momentum faltered again in October, and we believe spot rates will continue to moderate near-term. Negative reaction to ZIM's...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

In this insight we offer some quick updates on regional container carrier TS Lines, which successfully listed its shares in Hong Kong on November 1.

Tracking Traffic

Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

We believe container shipping price momentum is waning. Pairing a short position in carrier ZIM against a long position in terminal operator CMPH...

Tracking Traffic

Estimating the Passive Impact of HMM’s KOSPI 200 Float Rate Cut, Going into Effect on Nov 13

This post dives into the passive impact of HMM’s KOSPI 200 float rate cut, effective November 13, and highlights key trading considerations.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)