Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KDB recently initiated the process of selecting an advisory firm to sell its stake in HMM, which will likely be the first to implement the mandatory offer rule.</li>
<li>Potential bidders include Hyundai Glovis, LX Holdings, and Samsung SDS. As for POSCO Holdings, it recently said that it is not considering acquiring HMM.</li>
<li>Given that HMM is the only national shipping company, there is a good chance that multiple bidders will appear, which will lead to a premium to the market price.</li>
</ul>


KDB recently initiated the process of selecting an advisory firm to sell its stake in HMM, which will likely be the first to implement the mandatory offer rule.
Potential bidders include Hyundai Glovis, LX Holdings, and Samsung SDS. As for POSCO Holdings, it recently said that it is not considering acquiring HMM.
Given that HMM is the only national shipping company, there is a good chance that multiple bidders will appear, which will lead to a premium to the market price.


HMM Is Likely the First to Be Subject to the Mandatory Offer that Comes into Force

<ul>
<li>Targetable names on KOSPI for dividend arbitrage: SK Telecom (017670), Woori Financial (316140), SK Hynix (000660), KB Financial (105560), Korea Zinc (010130), and HMM (011200) </li>
<li>
Samsung Electronics (005930)' basis does not reflect special dividends, even though speculations have not disappeared entirely.</li>
<li>As the current basis hasn't widened to an entirely sufficient level, we need to target arb trade openings focusing on the above stocks a bit more aggressively.</li>
</ul>


Targetable names on KOSPI for dividend arbitrage: SK Telecom (017670), Woori Financial (316140), SK Hynix (000660), KB Financial (105560), Korea Zinc (010130), and HMM (011200) 

Samsung Electronics (005930)' basis does not reflect special dividends, even though speculations have not disappeared entirely.
As the current basis hasn't widened to an entirely sufficient level, we need to target arb trade openings focusing on the above stocks a bit more aggressively.


Targetable Names on KOSPI for Dividend Arbitrage: DPS Estimates & Current Basis

<ul>
<li>The additional Lotte Confectionery/Samyang Holdings flow will come from K200/KRX 300 Consumer Staples, K200 MidSmallCap, and K200 Ex-Top. However, the actual flow impact wouldn't be significant.</li>
<li>From a flow trading standpoint, the KOSPI 50's HMM/Hanon System probably deserves our attention because additional inflows come from the pensions that account for more than half of local PASSIVE.</li>
<li>Since their rebalancing trading tends to be somewhat dispersed, the return rate was the best when the position holding period was from T-3 to the effective date.</li>
</ul>


The additional Lotte Confectionery/Samyang Holdings flow will come from K200/KRX 300 Consumer Staples, K200 MidSmallCap, and K200 Ex-Top. However, the actual flow impact wouldn't be significant.
From a flow trading standpoint, the KOSPI 50's HMM/Hanon System probably deserves our attention because additional inflows come from the pensions that account for more than half of local PASSIVE.
Since their rebalancing trading tends to be somewhat dispersed, the return rate was the best when the position holding period was from T-3 to the effective date.


KOSPI 200 Sector/Size & KRX 300 Sector: Constituent Changes & Trading Points

<ul>
<li>Chairman Kim of the FSC mentioned potential rule changes in disclosing the names of short sellers at the state audit last Thursday.</li>
<li>The first is to reveal the identity of short sellers who traded through a swap contract with a broker, which is currently exempt from the short-selling disclosure obligation.</li>
<li>The second is to disclose the identity of investors caught in illegal short-selling activities, mostly naked short-selling and wall-crossing.</li>
</ul>


Chairman Kim of the FSC mentioned potential rule changes in disclosing the names of short sellers at the state audit last Thursday.
The first is to reveal the identity of short sellers who traded through a swap contract with a broker, which is currently exempt from the short-selling disclosure obligation.
The second is to disclose the identity of investors caught in illegal short-selling activities, mostly naked short-selling and wall-crossing.


Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea

<ul>
<li>The KRX will list 20 new single stock futures (SSF) and 5 single stock options (SSO) next Monday, July 25, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>It seems very probable that the replacement demand for futures (short) will increase substantially due to a possible saturation of the loan market.</li>
<li>This situation, coupled with local pensions' basis trading, can lead to a significantly distorted basis. We should do basis trading or play pair trading (with LG Chem) on this.</li>
</ul>


The KRX will list 20 new single stock futures (SSF) and 5 single stock options (SSO) next Monday, July 25, including LG Energy Solution (373220 KS).
It seems very probable that the replacement demand for futures (short) will increase substantially due to a possible saturation of the loan market.
This situation, coupled with local pensions' basis trading, can lead to a significantly distorted basis. We should do basis trading or play pair trading (with LG Chem) on this.


Korea's New SSF/SSO Listing on July 25 & LG Energy's Massive Lockup Release on July 27

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

HMM Is Likely the First to Be Subject to the Mandatory Offer that Comes into Force

This post investigates KDB's HMM stake sale reportedly initiated last week and discusses the possibility that this deal will be the first to be...

Sanghyun Park

Targetable Names on KOSPI for Dividend Arbitrage: DPS Estimates & Current Basis

This post screens targetable names on KOSPI for dividend arbitrage based on relatively reliable DPS estimates and current basis widening.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI 200 Sector/Size & KRX 300 Sector: Constituent Changes & Trading Points

This post details the constituent changes of the sector/size sub-indices of KOSPI 200 and KRX 300, announced by KRX last week and discusses trading...

Sanghyun Park

Rule Changes in Disclosing the Identities of Foreign Short Sellers in Korea

This post explains what FSC Chairman Kim meant by potential rule changes in the short seller identity disclosure, which he mentioned at the state...

Sanghyun Park

Korea's New SSF/SSO Listing on July 25 & LG Energy's Massive Lockup Release on July 27

This post details Korea's new SSF/SSO listing on July 25 and investigates potential basis & pair trading opportunities on LG Energy Solution amid...

Sanghyun Park

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