Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).</li>
<li>An even bigger factor on HMM's share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company. </li>
<li>Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
An even bigger factor on HMM's share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company. 
Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.


HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Minister Jin, Busan’s sole ruling-party lawmaker, gives his out-of-the-blue remarks significant political weight, making the local-government HMM stake plan materially more likely than mere weekend chatter.</li>
<li>Fresh newsflow shifts the tender hedge narrative: Jin’s remark likely nudges KOBC toward skipping, while KDB is locked in.</li>
<li>KOBC’s tender decision and Jin’s remarks could flip post-tender bias, raising hedge difficulty; a cautious approach is needed, monitoring price action and exposure risk before stepping in.</li>
</ul>


Minister Jin, Busan’s sole ruling-party lawmaker, gives his out-of-the-blue remarks significant political weight, making the local-government HMM stake plan materially more likely than mere weekend chatter.
Fresh newsflow shifts the tender hedge narrative: Jin’s remark likely nudges KOBC toward skipping, while KDB is locked in.
KOBC’s tender decision and Jin’s remarks could flip post-tender bias, raising hedge difficulty; a cautious approach is needed, monitoring price action and exposure risk before stepping in.


Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender

<ul>
<li>Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender</li>
<li>As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.</li>
<li>With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.</li>
</ul>


Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender
As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.
With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.


HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

<ul>
<li>KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.</li>
<li>Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.</li>
<li>Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.</li>
</ul>


KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.


Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>US tariffs take a toll For 2Q25, HMM posted revenue of W2.62tr (-1.5% YoY).</li><li>Container revenue fell 3.7% YoY to W2.17tr, as a drop in freight rates outweighed a 2.7% YoY increase in volume.</li><li>Meanwhile, bulk revenue jumped 13.9% YoY, mitigating the decline in overall revenue.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

US tariffs take a toll For 2Q25, HMM posted revenue of W2.62tr (-1.5% YoY).Container revenue fell 3.7% YoY to W2.17tr, as a drop in freight rates outweighed a 2.7% YoY increase in volume.Meanwhile, bulk revenue jumped 13.9% YoY, mitigating the decline in overall revenue.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMM (011200 KS/Buy)Focus on Long-Term Indicators and Competitiveness

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

HMM's ranking among the top ranks of short selling volume is Negative. HMM ranked third among listed stocks in terms of short selling volume from...

Douglas Kim

Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender

This post covers significant new newsflow impacting the HMM tender, including potential shifts in key participants’ positions and implications for...

Sanghyun Park

HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

This post explores a side trade opportunity from the HMM tender event: targeting a basis squeeze near September futures expiry.

Sanghyun Park

Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

This post looks into today’s HMM tender follow-up disclosure and provides insights on structuring hedge ratio positioning.

Sanghyun Park

HMM (011200 KS/Buy)Focus on Long-Term Indicators and Competitiveness

US tariffs take a toll For 2Q25, HMM posted revenue of W2.62tr (-1.5% YoY). Container revenue fell 3.7% YoY to W2.17tr, as a drop in freight rates...

Mirae Asset Securities

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