Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank (NAB VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.1% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$26m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>Vietnam is on the watchlist of a global index provider for possible reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market and that could lead to inflows to the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank (NAB VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.1% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$26m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.
Vietnam is on the watchlist of a global index provider for possible reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market and that could lead to inflows to the stocks.


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Following the robust Oct-2024 sales update, we revise our volume estimates by 5–7% for FY24–25F.</li><li>We also incorporate recent raw material pullbacks.</li><li>Additionally, we factor in recent raw material cost reductions, resulting in an upward adjustment to our gross margin assumption. </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Following the robust Oct-2024 sales update, we revise our volume estimates by 5–7% for FY24–25F.We also incorporate recent raw material pullbacks.Additionally, we factor in recent raw material cost reductions, resulting in an upward adjustment to our gross margin assumption. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN Equity/ Trading Buy) - Near-Term Margin Upside on the Table

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

<ul><li>We maintain our BUY rating for HPG and raise our target price (TP) by 11% to VND35,700/share. </li><li>Our higher TP is driven by (1) rolling our TP forward to end-2025 and (2) 4%/2%/3%/3%/3% higher 2025/26/27/28/29F NPAT-MI projections, outweighing our lower target P/E of 15.0x. </li><li>We keep our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast broadly unchanged. Following strong 9M 2024 results, we increase (1) steel revenue by 5% (driven by higher ASP, partially offset by lower sales volume), (2) the real estate segment NPAT-MI by 5%, and (3) reduce financial expenses by 5%. These are offset by (1) 45 bps lower steel GPM, (2) an 11% drop in agriculture segment NPAT-MI, and (3) an 11% reduction in financial income forecasts due to weaker-than-expected 9M performance.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We maintain our BUY rating for HPG and raise our target price (TP) by 11% to VND35,700/share. Our higher TP is driven by (1) rolling our TP forward to end-2025 and (2) 4%/2%/3%/3%/3% higher 2025/26/27/28/29F NPAT-MI projections, outweighing our lower target P/E of 15.0x. We keep our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast broadly unchanged. Following strong 9M 2024 results, we increase (1) steel revenue by 5% (driven by higher ASP, partially offset by lower sales volume), (2) the real estate segment NPAT-MI by 5%, and (3) reduce financial expenses by 5%. These are offset by (1) 45 bps lower steel GPM, (2) an 11% drop in agriculture segment NPAT-MI, and (3) an 11% reduction in financial income forecasts due to weaker-than-expected 9M performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HPG VN - Domestic Demand & Capacity Expansion to Drive 2025F Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baf-vietnam-agriculture-joint-stock-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45291" rel="noopener">BAF Vietnam Agriculture (BAF VN)</a> will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$74m. There are 5 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinhomes-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27079:1" rel="noopener">Vinhomes (VHM VN)</a> stock prices have soared over the last few months and capping results in selling at this rebalance.</li>
</ul>



BAF Vietnam Agriculture (BAF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$74m. There are 5 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.

Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN) stock prices have soared over the last few months and capping results in selling at this rebalance.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite a moderate 15.2% YoY increase in total assets to VND978tr, TCB maintained strong expansion in core profit-generating assets, with credit (including corporate bonds) rising 21.7% YoY to VND683tr (69.8% of total assets) in FY24.</li><li>A steady disbursement pace underscored a prudent approach, balancing risk diversification and yield optimization. Real estate exposure declined to 63.7% (-7.3%p since 2022), while retail banking penetration increased to 41.6% (+2.2%p YoY).</li><li>Asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio down to 1.12% (-4bps YoY, -17bps QoQ), ranking second only to VCB, while LLR surged to 114% (+11.8%p YoY). </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Despite a moderate 15.2% YoY increase in total assets to VND978tr, TCB maintained strong expansion in core profit-generating assets, with credit (including corporate bonds) rising 21.7% YoY to VND683tr (69.8% of total assets) in FY24.A steady disbursement pace underscored a prudent approach, balancing risk diversification and yield optimization. Real estate exposure declined to 63.7% (-7.3%p since 2022), while retail banking penetration increased to 41.6% (+2.2%p YoY).Asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio down to 1.12% (-4bps YoY, -17bps QoQ), ranking second only to VCB, while LLR surged to 114% (+11.8%p YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock recommendations (Vietnam Market)_April 2025

Vietnam

Hoa Phat Group JSC is a multi-disciplinary manufacturing company. The Company manufactures a wide range of products, including steel, steel pipe, furniture, and refrigeration equipment.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hoa Phat Group Jsc (HPG VN)

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Brian Freitas