Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Two changes could happen between DAX and MDAX while there could be one change between MDAX and SDAX.</li>
<li>There could be more changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices as a couple name are lurking close to the border.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Two changes could happen between DAX and MDAX while there could be one change between MDAX and SDAX.
There could be more changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices as a couple name are lurking close to the border.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Fresenius, Lufthansa, Covestro, Continental & Others

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Edizione/Blacktone have obtained clearances from Bank of Italy and Bank of Spain regarding their voluntary takeover offer for Atlantia. Once the Consob approves the prospectus the offer can be launched.</li>
<li>The offer period should start in October and should be completed after 40 working days, with settlement by the end of November, and delisting by the end of the year.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.13%, 7.06% annualised return assuming settlement by 30 November. <strong>Long ATL IM</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Edizione/Blacktone have obtained clearances from Bank of Italy and Bank of Spain regarding their voluntary takeover offer for Atlantia. Once the Consob approves the prospectus the offer can be launched.
The offer period should start in October and should be completed after 40 working days, with settlement by the end of November, and delisting by the end of the year.
Gross spread is 1.13%, 7.06% annualised return assuming settlement by 30 November. Long ATL IM.


Edizione & KKR/​Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We have completed roughly half of the 20-day Reference Period for the DAX Equity Indices family for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Three names could move from SDAX to MDAX while the SDAX index could see another 4 ADDs/DELETEs.</li>
</ul>


We have completed roughly half of the 20-day Reference Period for the DAX Equity Indices family for the September 2022 Rebalance.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Three names could move from SDAX to MDAX while the SDAX index could see another 4 ADDs/DELETEs.


DAX/​​MDAX/​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios / Event-Driven

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios

<ul>
<li>ACS is simplifying  its corporate structure: it has acquired the minorities in CIMIC, increased its stake in Hochtief and is buyer for any shares in Hochtief owned by Atlantia.</li>
<li>Thiess is now acquiring MACA and could also be a candidate for acquisition by the parent.</li>
<li>I see value in ACS. Further rationalisation in the holding structure would be a catalyst for the reduction of the discount.</li>
</ul>


ACS is simplifying  its corporate structure: it has acquired the minorities in CIMIC, increased its stake in Hochtief and is buyer for any shares in Hochtief owned by Atlantia.
Thiess is now acquiring MACA and could also be a candidate for acquisition by the parent.
I see value in ACS. Further rationalisation in the holding structure would be a catalyst for the reduction of the discount.


Germany

Hochtief AG provides construction and construction related services worldwide. The Company finances, designs, builds, constructs and operates a wide variety of facilities through its five divisions; Airport, Development, Construction Services Americas, Construction Services Asia Pacific, and Construction Services Europe.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hochtief AG (HOT GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Fresenius, Lufthansa, Covestro, Continental & Others

Fresenius (FRE GR) and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GR) could move from MDAX to DAX while Covestro AG (1COV GR) and Continental AG (CON GR) could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

The Benettons/Blackstone offer for Atlantia has obtained all clearances, and just pending prospectus authorization by the Consob, should be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

Delivery Hero has to climb one rank to get into DAX. MDAX and SDAX could see multiple index changes. Takkt's recent negative momentum could have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Untangling ACS Holding Chain

Catalysts for the reduction of the discount would be increases in the Hochtief stake, direct ownership by ACS of the 50% of Abertis into the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Fresenius, Lufthansa, Covestro, Continental & Others

Fresenius (FRE GR) and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GR) could move from MDAX to DAX while Covestro AG (1COV GR) and Continental AG (CON GR) could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Edizione & KKR/​Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

The Benettons/Blackstone offer for Atlantia has obtained all clearances, and just pending prospectus authorization by the Consob, should be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DAX/​​MDAX/​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations

Delivery Hero has to climb one rank to get into DAX. MDAX and SDAX could see multiple index changes. Takkt's recent negative momentum could have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Untangling ACS Holding Chain

Catalysts for the reduction of the discount would be increases in the Hochtief stake, direct ownership by ACS of the 50% of Abertis into the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Final Expectations