Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>If you are still long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokuhoku-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19006:1" rel="noopener">Financial Group (8377 JP)</a> from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness</li>
<li>Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI (9433 JP)</a> shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
</ul>


If you are still long the Financial Group (8377 JP) from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness
Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Kyocera (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI (9433 JP) shares (after an AGM disaster).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.</li>
<li>On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.</li>
<li>Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.</li>
</ul>



Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.
On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.
Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.


Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japan stock market is at ~33 year highs with TOPIX now at July 1990 levels</li>
<li>Japan's banks can see greater gains on stocks as they divest sizable holdings</li>
<li>Vast differences how stocks holdings compare with profit, equity, assets</li>
</ul>


The Japan stock market is at ~33 year highs with TOPIX now at July 1990 levels
Japan's banks can see greater gains on stocks as they divest sizable holdings
Vast differences how stocks holdings compare with profit, equity, assets


Japan Banks - TOPIX at July 1990 Levels, Banks' Stock Holdings In Perspective

<ul>
<li>In 2018, Suruga Bank got itself in trouble, the shares fell 80% or more in a year-plus. In 2019 they took a big hit, and the Okano family sold out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nojima-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9655:1" rel="noopener">Nojima Corp (7419 JP)</a> bought the shares -85% from the peak. Now they are selling those shares, plus the ones they already owned. Down nearly 10% from where they bought. </li>
<li>This is an instant 15+% boost to BVPS and 22+% boost to EPS. That's great. But that may be where greatness stops.</li>
</ul>


In 2018, Suruga Bank got itself in trouble, the shares fell 80% or more in a year-plus. In 2019 they took a big hit, and the Okano family sold out.

Nojima Corp (7419 JP) bought the shares -85% from the peak. Now they are selling those shares, plus the ones they already owned. Down nearly 10% from where they bought. 
This is an instant 15+% boost to BVPS and 22+% boost to EPS. That's great. But that may be where greatness stops.


Japan

Hokuhoku Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  As a financial group, the Company provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Group also provides other financial services such as leasing and credit cards.

Hokuhoku Financial Group (8377 JP)

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

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Bank of Kyoto (8369) - Too Far Too Fast

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Japan Banks - TOPIX at July 1990 Levels, Banks' Stock Holdings In Perspective

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HUGE Suruga Bank (8358 JP) Buyback

Suruga Bank will do a large ToSTNeT-3 Buyback this morning at last trade. It is 15.7% accretive to BVPS and 22.7% accretive to EPS. That's great....

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