Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3">Holcim </a>is a global leader in building materials, strategically pivoting from a traditional cement producer to a provider of innovative and sustainable building solutions. This transformation is driven by its 'NextGen Growth 2030' strategy, which emphasizes decarbonization and circular construction.</li>
  <li>The company is expanding its high-margin 'Solutions &amp; Products' segment through organic growth and a disciplined M&amp;A strategy, targeting this division to represent a significant portion of future sales. This includes a focus on roofing, insulation, and other specialty building systems.</li>
  <li>Financially, <a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3">Holcim </a>has demonstrated strong profitability, achieving a record recurring EBIT margin. However, the company faces risks from macroeconomic cyclicality, stringent environmental regulations, and the successful execution of its planned spin-off of its North American business.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Holcim is a global leader in building materials, strategically pivoting from a traditional cement producer to a provider of innovative and sustainable building solutions. This transformation is driven by its 'NextGen Growth 2030' strategy, which emphasizes decarbonization and circular construction.
  The company is expanding its high-margin 'Solutions &amp; Products' segment through organic growth and a disciplined M&amp;A strategy, targeting this division to represent a significant portion of future sales. This includes a focus on roofing, insulation, and other specialty building systems.
  Financially, Holcim has demonstrated strong profitability, achieving a record recurring EBIT margin. However, the company faces risks from macroeconomic cyclicality, stringent environmental regulations, and the successful execution of its planned spin-off of its North American business.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NZ housing market subdued (REINZ, Jul): National sales down -1.8% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously +2.3%) and -10.0% yoy (previously -0.2%).</li><li>Another robust month for residential consents (Jun.): Residential consents -3.6% mom seasonally adjusted and +24.2% yoy (previously -4.9%/+24.5% respectively), with 12m rolling up +19.4% yoy to 40.6k.</li><li>Housing targets at risk as builders face torn-up contracts: Fuel and materials cost inflation is putting fixed-price home building contracts under renewed pressure, with builders unable to absorb step-changes in input costs and warning that projects will be delayed, cancelled or repriced.</li></ul>

NZ housing market subdued (REINZ, Jul): National sales down -1.8% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously +2.3%) and -10.0% yoy (previously -0.2%).Another robust month for residential consents (Jun.): Residential consents -3.6% mom seasonally adjusted and +24.2% yoy (previously -4.9%/+24.5% respectively), with 12m rolling up +19.4% yoy to 40.6k.Housing targets at risk as builders face torn-up contracts: Fuel and materials cost inflation is putting fixed-price home building contracts under renewed pressure, with builders unable to absorb step-changes in input costs and warning that projects will be delayed, cancelled or repriced.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Holcim Ltd's half-year 2025 earnings reveal both strengths and challenges that construct a comprehensive investment thesis.</li><li>On the positive side, Holcim has shown commendable growth in the first half of 2025, with robust net sales and recurring EBIT growth across its regions.</li><li>The company's margin expansion reaching 18.3%, attributed to their high-value strategy inclusive of scaling sustainable offerings, emphasizes their efforts toward profitability.</li></ul>

Holcim Ltd's half-year 2025 earnings reveal both strengths and challenges that construct a comprehensive investment thesis.On the positive side, Holcim has shown commendable growth in the first half of 2025, with robust net sales and recurring EBIT growth across its regions.The company's margin expansion reaching 18.3%, attributed to their high-value strategy inclusive of scaling sustainable offerings, emphasizes their efforts toward profitability.

Holcim Just Unlocked a Secret Weapon: ECOPlanet & ECOPact Premiumization!

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

<ul>
<li>Despite producing more than 4 billion tonnes annually, the global cement industry continues to trade close to replacement value, suggesting growth expectations remain relatively modest.</li>
<li>India has become the clearest source of incremental demand growth, with cement demand expanding by approximately 6-8% annually and leading producers continuing to add capacity.</li>
<li>Dangote's proposed London listing may become an observable test of whether global investors are willing to pay a premium for African construction growth.</li>
</ul>


Despite producing more than 4 billion tonnes annually, the global cement industry continues to trade close to replacement value, suggesting growth expectations remain relatively modest.
India has become the clearest source of incremental demand growth, with cement demand expanding by approximately 6-8% annually and leading producers continuing to add capacity.
Dangote's proposed London listing may become an observable test of whether global investors are willing to pay a premium for African construction growth.


From Benchmark To Growth: What Cement Demand May Be Telling Investors

United States

Holcim Ltd. provides building materials. The Company produces ready-mixed concrete, cement, clinker, aggregates, green mobility, and building solutions. Holcim serves clients worldwide.

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Holcim (HOLN SW)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Primer: Holcim (HOLN SW) - May 2026

Holcim is a global leader in building materials, strategically pivoting from a traditional cement producer to a provider of innovative and...

αSK Primers

Building News Wrap

NZ housing market subdued (REINZ, Jul): National sales down -1.8% seasonally adjusted month-on-month (previously +2.3%) and -10.0% yoy (previously...

Forsyth Barr

Holcim Just Unlocked a Secret Weapon: ECOPlanet & ECOPact Premiumization!

Holcim Ltd's half-year 2025 earnings reveal both strengths and challenges that construct a comprehensive investment thesis. On the positive side,...

Baptista Research

From Benchmark To Growth: What Cement Demand May Be Telling Investors

Despite producing over 4 billion tonnes annually, the global cement industry still trades near replacement value. India and Africa may determine...

Duncan Chan

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