Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: The all-scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qv-equities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24284:1" rel="noopener">QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wam-leaders-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24274:1" rel="noopener">WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benesse-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12877:1" rel="noopener">Benesse Holdings (9783 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glosel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18515:1" rel="noopener">Glosel (9995 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: The all-scrip Offer for QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU) from WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU).
Key updates took place on: Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Benesse Holdings (9783 JP), Glosel (9995 JP) and Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: QV Equities, Orecorp, Benesse, Glosel, Outsourcing

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Hollysys Automation Technologies / Event-Driven

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> and Dazheng have traded barbs since Glass Lewis and ISS recommended voting against Ascendent’s US$26.50 offer at the EGM on 8 February.  </li>
<li>While Dazheng may have been held to a higher standard than Ascendent, the proxy statement shows that the impasse was mainly due to Dazheng’s inability to get its act together. </li>
<li>The simple majority voting threshold and no shareholder publicly backing Dazheng’s call to vote NO will help the vote get up. The gross/annualised spread for an end-March close is 7.1%/52.1%.</li>
</ul>



Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) and Dazheng have traded barbs since Glass Lewis and ISS recommended voting against Ascendent’s US$26.50 offer at the EGM on 8 February.  
While Dazheng may have been held to a higher standard than Ascendent, the proxy statement shows that the impasse was mainly due to Dazheng’s inability to get its act together. 
The simple majority voting threshold and no shareholder publicly backing Dazheng’s call to vote NO will help the vote get up. The gross/annualised spread for an end-March close is 7.1%/52.1%.


<ul>
<li>For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~34%. </li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~34%. 
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

<ul>
<li>On the 26th January, proxy advisor Glass Lewis issued a report recommending <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a> shareholders vote against Ascendent's merger. Two days later, ISS issued a similar opinion.  </li>
<li>Both reports targeted HOLI's efforts to maximize an Offer price. Elsewhere, some salient points were raised. But overall, there exists an air of naivety in their conclusions.</li>
<li>HOLI's EGM is scheduled for February 8th. The merger consideration of US$26.50/share is in line with, or above, the estimated values of Deutsche Bank's fairness opinion.</li>
</ul>


On the 26th January, proxy advisor Glass Lewis issued a report recommending Hollysys (HOLI US) shareholders vote against Ascendent's merger. Two days later, ISS issued a similar opinion.  
Both reports targeted HOLI's efforts to maximize an Offer price. Elsewhere, some salient points were raised. But overall, there exists an air of naivety in their conclusions.
HOLI's EGM is scheduled for February 8th. The merger consideration of US$26.50/share is in line with, or above, the estimated values of Deutsche Bank's fairness opinion.


Hollysys (HOLI US): Critiquing ISS & Glass Lewis' Critiques

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benesse-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12877:1" rel="noopener">Benesse Holdings (9783 JP)</a>, T&amp;K Toka. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US), JSR Corp (4185 JP).
Lowest spreads - Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), Benesse Holdings (9783 JP), T&amp;K Toka. 


Merger Arb Mondays (29 Jan) - Shinko, JSR, Payroll, T&K Toka, Weiqiao, Hollysys, Newmark, OreCorp

United States

Hollysys Automation Technologies Ltd. manufactures automation and control systems.  The Company produces process, industrial, rail and subway, and nuclear power plant automation equipment.

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Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: QV Equities, Orecorp, Benesse, Glosel, Outsourcing

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Hollysys (HOLI US): The State of Play

The simple majority voting threshold and no shareholder publicly backing Dazheng’s call to vote NO will help the vote get up. The gross/annualised...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of...

David Blennerhassett

Hollysys (HOLI US): Critiquing ISS & Glass Lewis' Critiques

HOLI is cheap, not only at US$26.50, but also US$29/share. That's all known. I'd take a firm Offer at US$26.50. So would fatigued shareholders.

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (29 Jan) - Shinko, JSR, Payroll, T&K Toka, Weiqiao, Hollysys, Newmark, OreCorp

This week, the highest gross spreads are Hollysys (14.2%), Probiotec (8.7%), Shinko Electric (8.3%), Genetron (7.7%), JSR (7.4%), Adbri (4.6%), IRC...

Arun George

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