Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Utah-based bank saw its credit costs in sharp reversal during the most recent quarter. This bank had stood out in our research some months ago, where its credit costs were 58x higher than recent levels. Figures can still improve.</p>

The Utah-based bank saw its credit costs in sharp reversal during the most recent quarter. This bank had stood out in our research some months ago, where its credit costs were 58x higher than recent levels. Figures can still improve.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>When we are considering if banks are likely to see a strong credit cost delta in the current quarter, we can first look to monthly data to triangulate. After some very strong months of accumulated loan loss reserves, the figure has eased off dramatically during August. This may as good a sign as any, that US banks will be able to report strong profit delta in 3Q20. A steepening yield curve would add further to profit delta. </p>

When we are considering if banks are likely to see a strong credit cost delta in the current quarter, we can first look to monthly data to triangulate. After some very strong months of accumulated loan loss reserves, the figure has eased off dramatically during August. This may as good a sign as any, that US banks will be able to report strong profit delta in 3Q20. A steepening yield curve would add further to profit delta. 

US Banks – Loan Loss Reserve Increase Slowing

United States

Home BancShares Inc. is a bank holding company whose subsidiaries provide a range of commercial and retail banking services to businesses, real estate developers and investors, individuals and municipalities.  The Banks serve central Arkansas, and the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida.

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Home Bancshares (HOMB US)

Zions – Most Prone To Reversals

Credit costs in FY20 were 11x higher than FY19, despite 4Q20 reversals. The bank can see a greater decline during FY21 than most US banks. It also...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – Loan Loss Reserve Increase Slowing

When we are considering how banks are likely to see a strong credit cost delta in the current quarter, we can first look to monthly data to...

Daniel Tabbush

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