Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 profit fell YoY, QoQ on lower SSSG and GPM (–YoY, +QoQ), while SG&amp;A to sales rose YoY, QoQ.</li><li>9M25 profit equaled 70% of 2025E earnings forecast.</li><li>Maintain “Outperform,” as the stock offers 15% upside to our Bt7.80 FV (earnings yield method; required return 6.72%).</li></ul>

3Q25 profit fell YoY, QoQ on lower SSSG and GPM (–YoY, +QoQ), while SG&amp;A to sales rose YoY, QoQ.9M25 profit equaled 70% of 2025E earnings forecast.Maintain “Outperform,” as the stock offers 15% upside to our Bt7.80 FV (earnings yield method; required return 6.72%).

HOME PRODUCT CENTER Plc. (HMPRO): 3Q25 Profit Down YoY and QoQ; SSSG –5%

<ul><li>3Q25E profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ due to weaker SSSG. Gross margin is expected to have remained flat YoY, while operating expenses to sales likely increased.</li><li>9M25E profit is estimated to have accounted for around 70% of the full-year 2025E forecast.</li><li>KTX raises our fair value to Bt7.80, using the earnings yield method with a required return of 6.72%, based on updated macro assumptions (Rf = 1.04%, MRP = 5.81%), versus the previous fair value of Bt6.30 (8% required return; Rf = 1.45%, MRP = 5.26%).</li></ul>

3Q25E profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ due to weaker SSSG. Gross margin is expected to have remained flat YoY, while operating expenses to sales likely increased.9M25E profit is estimated to have accounted for around 70% of the full-year 2025E forecast.KTX raises our fair value to Bt7.80, using the earnings yield method with a required return of 6.72%, based on updated macro assumptions (Rf = 1.04%, MRP = 5.81%), versus the previous fair value of Bt6.30 (8% required return; Rf = 1.45%, MRP = 5.26%).

HOME PRODUCT CENTER Plc. (HMPRO): 3Q25E Core Profit Expected to Have Declined YoY and QoQ...

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.</li><li>We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.</li><li>The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.</li></ul>

If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

<ul><li>The US sets a 19% tariff rate on Thailand.</li><li>The US and Thailand issue a joint statement as a framework for the next stage of negotiations.</li><li>The US and Thailand conduct detailed negotiations in line with the joint statement.</li></ul>

The US sets a 19% tariff rate on Thailand.The US and Thailand issue a joint statement as a framework for the next stage of negotiations.The US and Thailand conduct detailed negotiations in line with the joint statement.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 15, 2025

<ul><li>2Q25 profit declined YoY and QoQ as expected, pressured by - 9% same- store sales growth ( SSSG) and a lower gross margin, while operating expenses as a percentage of sales increased.</li><li>1H25 profit accounted for 49% of the full- year 2025E estimate, and we maintain our current forecast.</li><li>The valuation metrics continue to support a sell rating, as the share price is trading above our fair value of Bt6. 30 (based on an 8% required return, implying a PER of 12x). </li></ul>

2Q25 profit declined YoY and QoQ as expected, pressured by - 9% same- store sales growth ( SSSG) and a lower gross margin, while operating expenses as a percentage of sales increased.1H25 profit accounted for 49% of the full- year 2025E estimate, and we maintain our current forecast.The valuation metrics continue to support a sell rating, as the share price is trading above our fair value of Bt6. 30 (based on an 8% required return, implying a PER of 12x). 

Home Product Center - 2Q25 Earnings Fell 14% YoY and 18% QoQ, as Projected

Thailand

Home Product Center Public Company Limited is a retailer of building materials and home improvement products.

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Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)

HOME PRODUCT CENTER Plc. (HMPRO): 3Q25 Profit Down YoY and QoQ; SSSG –5%

3Q25 profit fell YoY, QoQ on lower SSSG and GPM (–YoY, +QoQ), while SG&A to sales rose YoY, QoQ. 9M25 profit equaled 70% of 2025E earnings forecast.

Krungthai XSpring

HOME PRODUCT CENTER Plc. (HMPRO): 3Q25E Core Profit Expected to Have Declined YoY and QoQ...

3Q25E profit is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ due to weaker SSSG. Gross margin is expected to have remained flat YoY, while operating...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 15, 2025

The US and Thailand issue a joint statement as a framework for the next stage of negotiations.The US and Thailand conduct detailed negotiations in...

Krungthai XSpring

Home Product Center - 2Q25 Earnings Fell 14% YoY and 18% QoQ, as Projected

2Q25 profit declined YoY and QoQ as expected, pressured by - 9% same- store sales growth ( SSSG) and a lower gross margin, while operating expenses...

Krungthai XSpring

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