Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The last 18 months were the most traumatic for the fashion retail history since WWII. </li>
<li>Average household consumption budgets for apparel fell 18% in 2020 to a monthly average of just ¥10,655, 22% down on five years previously.</li>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the fashion sector with unique rankings of the top 100, most profitable, fastest growing chains.</li>
</ul>


The last 18 months were the most traumatic for the fashion retail history since WWII. 
Average household consumption budgets for apparel fell 18% in 2020 to a monthly average of just ¥10,655, 22% down on five years previously.
The following is an in-depth review of the fashion sector with unique rankings of the top 100, most profitable, fastest growing chains.


Fashion Retailing 2020-21: Leading Brands Suffer Worst Year in Modern History

Momentum was building for fashion EC well before 2020 but the situation last year brought an overwhelming response from both consumers and merchants. As a result, market share for the online channel has spiralled upwards and, although there will be a correction once shoppers return to stores, the medium-term trajectory is clear.
The big malls continue to dominate – as Zozo’s 21.5% growth in 2020 attests – but retailers and brands are investing much more in their own online stores, creating a level of dynamism and competition not seen in other fashion retail channels.
The following is an in-depth review of the fashion e-commerce market covering:
<ul>
<li>Market Size and market growth</li>
<li>Winners and losers in the last two years</li>
<li>Ranking of the top vendors online by sales</li>
<li>Ranking of fastest growing e-commerce fashion retailers</li>
<li>Strengths and weaknesses in leading firms</li>
<li>Ranking of firms with highest ratio of online sales to offline</li>
<li>Ranking of firms with highest share of direct online sales vs 3rd party malls.</li>
<li>Review of market share of major malls vs direct sales by retailers and the momentum behind each.</li>
</ul>

Momentum was building for fashion EC well before 2020 but the situation last year brought an overwhelming response from both consumers and merchants. As a result, market share for the online channel has spiralled upwards and, although there will be a correction once shoppers return to stores, the medium-term trajectory is clear.
The big malls continue to dominate – as Zozo’s 21.5% growth in 2020 attests – but retailers and brands are investing much more in their own online stores, creating a level of dynamism and competition not seen in other fashion retail channels.
The following is an in-depth review of the fashion e-commerce market covering:

Market Size and market growth
Winners and losers in the last two years
Ranking of the top vendors online by sales
Ranking of fastest growing e-commerce fashion retailers
Strengths and weaknesses in leading firms
Ranking of firms with highest ratio of online sales to offline
Ranking of firms with highest share of direct online sales vs 3rd party malls.
Review of market share of major malls vs direct sales by retailers and the momentum behind each.


Fashion E-Commerce Has Watershed Year in 2020

Last year the Japanese fashion market contracted below ¥16 trillion for the first time in more than a decade and this year is proving much, much worse.In the last big crises – the 2008 financial shock and 2011 triple disasters – demand also fell dramatically and then recovered. But this time is different: as well as a fall in demand, the Covid-19 crisis has also led to a marked fall in supply.But there is some good news. Above all, Japanese are not travelling either at home or abroad and they are also eating out less.In the seven months to July, the average working household had cumulatively saved a net ¥1.25 million, more than 11 months in both 2018 and 2019 and more than an entire year before 2018.Suddenly wallets are full, which could mean more money to spend on treats – good news for luxury but also any brand or retailing offering something fun to divert from the all bleak news.While the short-term outlook remains dark, the medium-term should see both a return to a more stable trading environment and something of a splurge too as people express their relief that it’s all over.The following is a complete review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector including rankings of the top 100 retailers by sales, top by profit, sales growth, and store openings/closures.This insight is labelled bullish because the Japanese apparel/fashion sector will rebound from the current crisis although the long-term outlook for this sector is stagnant stability rather than significant growth. However, within this, there are significant growth stocks as detailed below.

Last year the Japanese fashion market contracted below ¥16 trillion for the first time in more than a decade and this year is proving much, much worse.In the last big crises – the 2008 financial shock and 2011 triple disasters – demand also fell dramatically and then recovered. But this time is different: as well as a fall in demand, the Covid-19 crisis has also led to a marked fall in supply.But there is some good news. Above all, Japanese are not travelling either at home or abroad and they are also eating out less.In the seven months to July, the average working household had cumulatively saved a net ¥1.25 million, more than 11 months in both 2018 and 2019 and more than an entire year before 2018.Suddenly wallets are full, which could mean more money to spend on treats – good news for luxury but also any brand or retailing offering something fun to divert from the all bleak news.While the short-term outlook remains dark, the medium-term should see both a return to a more stable trading environment and something of a splurge too as people express their relief that it’s all over.The following is a complete review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector including rankings of the top 100 retailers by sales, top by profit, sales growth, and store openings/closures.This insight is labelled bullish because the Japanese apparel/fashion sector will rebound from the current crisis although the long-term outlook for this sector is stagnant stability rather than significant growth. However, within this, there are significant growth stocks as detailed below.

Japan Fashion Retailing Complete Review 2019-20: Pain Now but a Recovery Is Certain

Equity Bottom-Up

Another case of hubris in Japanese e-commerce? Shoplist operator, Crooz, made a big splash about its plans to build wa ¥100 billion fashion platform three years ago but made a thumping loss in 2018 and then sales actually fell last year, proving just how hard it is for smaller e-commerce platforms to shine in the shadow of the big three.

Another case of hubris in Japanese e-commerce? Shoplist operator, Crooz, made a big splash about its plans to build wa ¥100 billion fashion platform three years ago but made a thumping loss in 2018 and then sales actually fell last year, proving just how hard it is for smaller e-commerce platforms to shine in the shadow of the big three.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/786/original/2020-07-08_06-33-57.png?1594157660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144786"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/788/original/2020-07-08_06-35-53.png?1594157763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144788"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/790/original/2020-07-08_06-48-56.png?1594158549" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144790"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>14 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul>
<li>
Results Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change:-0.6</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div> 8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.9</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.
DAILY STATS
14 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-0.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt
 8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.9


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

Japan

HONEYS. CO., LTD. plans, manufactures, and retails ladies' casual clothing and accessories.  The Company operates stores throughout Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. (2792 JP)

Fashion Retailing 2020-21: Leading Brands Suffer Worst Year in Modern History

This insight is an in-depth review of Japan's apparel sector providing key background and comparisons for investors, including rankings of the top...

Michael Causton

Fashion E-Commerce Has Watershed Year in 2020

A complete review of the fashion e-commerce market in Japan, including rankings by sales, fastest growing, winners and losers and reviews of the...

Michael Causton

Japan Fashion Retailing Complete Review 2019-20: Pain Now but a Recovery Is Certain

The following is a complete, in-depth review of the Japanese apparel/fashion sector covering key trends, rankings of the top 100 by sales and top...

Michael Causton

Shoplist Promise Withers on the Web

Crooz promised sales of ¥100 billion within a few years and a long-term target of a ¥1 trillion capitalisation. Its early promise has withered...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)