EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sector" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sector</a>The Timeline<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/357/original/mmp1.JPG?1477455972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15357"></figure>Model portfolio – revisiting our tactical idea, How has it panned out so far?<ul><li>
Our selected stocks from the Dry Bulk sector generated a return of 8.7% (28%…</li></ul>

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found at https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping &amp; https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sectorThe TimelineModel portfolio – revisiting our tactical idea, How has it panned out so far?
Our selected stocks from the Dry Bulk sector generated a return of 8.7% (28%…

Maritime Model Portfolio - Early Call on Dry Bulk Stocks Offsets Initial Losses

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

A Hillary victory would benefit Thai markets in terms of TIP market re-allocations and export strength, while hurting us on global stability. Victims of Trump includes energy and exporters. If Hillary extends Obamacare, chances of Americans coming to Thailand for medical tourism will also decline yo.In Las Vegas, Hillary and Trump meet for their final debate, and both of them were SPECTACULAR. Not all the polls are out yet, but we generally agree that Hillary won narrowly. Trump had better grasps of foreign politics and exuded more confidence, but President (yes, trust me on this) Hillary won a vote from MCorp Review for superior thematic consistency (very important to us) and sportsmanship. The two candidates tied on economics, and no scores were awarded for emotional connection since this ain't no town hall format. At the end of the day, we regret to inform Trump supporters that well...he really shot himself in the foot yo. :(

A Hillary victory would benefit Thai markets in terms of TIP market re-allocations and export strength, while hurting us on global stability. Victims of Trump includes energy and exporters. If Hillary extends Obamacare, chances of Americans coming to Thailand for medical tourism will also decline yo.In Las Vegas, Hillary and Trump meet for their final debate, and both of them were SPECTACULAR. Not all the polls are out yet, but we generally agree that Hillary won narrowly. Trump had better grasps of foreign politics and exuded more confidence, but President (yes, trust me on this) Hillary won a vote from MCorp Review for superior thematic consistency (very important to us) and sportsmanship. The two candidates tied on economics, and no scores were awarded for emotional connection since this ain't no town hall format. At the end of the day, we regret to inform Trump supporters that well...he really shot himself in the foot yo. :(

What Happens in Vegas...Goes to the White House (Hillary 2, Trump 1...Game Over!)

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

United States

Honeywell International Inc. is a worldwide diversified technology and manufacturing company providing aerospace products and services, control, sensing and security technologies, turbochargers, automotive products, specialty chemicals, electronic and advanced materials, process technology for refining and petrochemicals, and energy efficient products and solutions.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Honeywell International (HON US)

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Maritime Model Portfolio - Early Call on Dry Bulk Stocks Offsets Initial Losses

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

What Happens in Vegas...Goes to the White House (Hillary 2, Trump 1...Game Over!)

A Hillary victory would benefit Thai markets in terms of TIP market re-allocations and export strength, while hurting us on global stability....

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Hometown New York: Hillary 1, Trump 0

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)