Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.</li>
<li>At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.
The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.
At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong has entered a consolidation stage of its long-term Secular Bull Market.  Southbound buying declined in October from an all time high in the previous month.</li>
<li>Dividend yield and low volatility factors outperformed in October as growth and momentum factors declined.  </li>
<li>The technology and healthcare sectors declined in October, while the energy and utility sectors gained during the month.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong has entered a consolidation stage of its long-term Secular Bull Market.  Southbound buying declined in October from an all time high in the previous month.
Dividend yield and low volatility factors outperformed in October as growth and momentum factors declined.  
The technology and healthcare sectors declined in October, while the energy and utility sectors gained during the month.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (November 5)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

<ul>
<li>Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Prop (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land (12 HK)</a> are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.</li>
<li>Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Hang Lung Prop (101 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK), and Henderson Land (12 HK) are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.
Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.


HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Hong Kong

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited is the sole provider of town gas in Hong Kong, engaging in gas production and distribution, marketing of gas appliances, and comprehensive after-sales services. The company has diversified its operations to include city-gas projects, water supply, waste treatment, renewable energy, telecommunications, and property development in Hong Kong and mainland China. It was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hong Kong and China Gas (3 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (November 5)

Hong Kong has entered a consolidation stage of its long-term Secular Bull Market. Southbound buying declined in October from an all time high in...

David Mudd

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (November 5)

Hong Kong has entered a consolidation stage of its long-term Secular Bull Market. Southbound buying declined in October from an all time high in...

David Mudd

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

​High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...