HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Plover Bay Technologies / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The screen isolates eight Hong Kong-listed companies with a five-year average ROCE above 15% (median 33.0%), spanning exchanges, medical aesthetics, toys, apparel, and networking hardware.</li>
<li>Capital efficiency converts into cash: all eight have paid dividends every year since FY20, with a median trailing yield of 7.7% and cumulative payouts near half the average share price.</li>
<li>Valuations remain undemanding: six of eight trades trade below 11x earnings and 6x EV/EBITDA, leaving Taste Gourmet, JNBY, and Dream International the best risk-reward.</li>
</ul>


The screen isolates eight Hong Kong-listed companies with a five-year average ROCE above 15% (median 33.0%), spanning exchanges, medical aesthetics, toys, apparel, and networking hardware.
Capital efficiency converts into cash: all eight have paid dividends every year since FY20, with a median trailing yield of 7.7% and cumulative payouts near half the average share price.
Valuations remain undemanding: six of eight trades trade below 11x earnings and 6x EV/EBITDA, leaving Taste Gourmet, JNBY, and Dream International the best risk-reward.


HK High ROCE - Compounders Hiding in Plain Sight

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Capital Markets

National Stock Exchange of India / Equity Capital Markets

National Stock Exchange of India (NSE IN)

<ul>
<li>NSE operates a vertically integrated exchange‑clearing‑data platform with high operating leverage and strong cash generation, positioning it as a quasi‑monopoly market infrastructure play on Indian financial deepening.</li>
<li>Despite a moderation in growth due to regulatory changes, strong 4QFY26 results outline the company's resilience and visibility to deliver superior growth and profitability. ROE metrics are best in class.</li>
<li>This is NSE's second attempt at listing after major regulatory/governance headwinds since its 2016 attempt. Most issues have now been settled, setting the course for its public listing.</li>
</ul>


NSE operates a vertically integrated exchange‑clearing‑data platform with high operating leverage and strong cash generation, positioning it as a quasi‑monopoly market infrastructure play on Indian financial deepening.
Despite a moderation in growth due to regulatory changes, strong 4QFY26 results outline the company's resilience and visibility to deliver superior growth and profitability. ROE metrics are best in class.
This is NSE's second attempt at listing after major regulatory/governance headwinds since its 2016 attempt. Most issues have now been settled, setting the course for its public listing.


World's Largest Stock Exchange by Contracts Is Finally Ready to Go Public

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>On 10 August, Hang Seng Index launched a market consultation on potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> methodology.</li>
<li>If the proposals are approved, there will be 20 stocks added to the index in December creating a lot of flow and impact for the index constituents.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 13.4% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$73.3bn (US$9.3bn), so this could be implemented in a phased manner.</li>
</ul>


On 10 August, Hang Seng Index launched a market consultation on potential changes to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) methodology.
If the proposals are approved, there will be 20 stocks added to the index in December creating a lot of flow and impact for the index constituents.
One way turnover is estimated at 13.4% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$73.3bn (US$9.3bn), so this could be implemented in a phased manner.


HSTECH Index: Market Consultation, 20 Adds in December, Trade of US$9.3bn

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> listed on 9 January and should be included in one global index and one local index in June.</li>
<li>Lockup expiry in July and September should increase float significantly and there will be more passive buying in November and December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> should be added to the HSCI in June and to Southbound Stock Connect in August.</li>
</ul>



MiniMax Group (100 HK) listed on 9 January and should be included in one global index and one local index in June.
Lockup expiry in July and September should increase float significantly and there will be more passive buying in November and December.

MiniMax Group (100 HK) should be added to the HSCI in June and to Southbound Stock Connect in August.


MiniMax (100 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline/Flows & Stock Connect Entry

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) operates a range of equity, commodity, fixed income, and currency markets, providing listing, trading, clearing, and settlement services for securities and derivatives. It also functions as a frontline regulator for companies listed in Hong Kong. HKEX was formally established on March 6, 2000, and is headquartered in Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK High ROCE - Compounders Hiding in Plain Sight

Eight HK-listed names with a 33% median ROCE, annual dividends since FY20, and a 9.4x median P/E. Median total return: 214% since 2020. Best value:...

Sameer Taneja

World's Largest Stock Exchange by Contracts Is Finally Ready to Go Public

IPO timeline is firming up as bankers seek valuation of up to $55 billion As per news reports, NSE has completed most of its global roadshow across...

Himanshu Dugar

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation, 20 Adds in December, Trade of US$9.3bn

Following a market consult, there could be 20 adds for the index in Dec leading to a one-way turnover of 13.4% and a round-trip trade of US$9.3bn....

Brian Freitas

MiniMax (100 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline/Flows & Stock Connect Entry

MiniMax will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. That will also result in the expiry of some pre-IPO shareholder...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK High ROCE - Compounders Hiding in Plain Sight

Eight HK-listed names with a 33% median ROCE, annual dividends since FY20, and a 9.4x median P/E. Median total return: 214% since 2020. Best value:...

Sameer Taneja

World's Largest Stock Exchange by Contracts Is Finally Ready to Go Public

IPO timeline is firming up as bankers seek valuation of up to $55 billion As per news reports, NSE has completed most of its global roadshow across...

Himanshu Dugar

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation, 20 Adds in December, Trade of US$9.3bn

Following a market consult, there could be 20 adds for the index in Dec leading to a one-way turnover of 13.4% and a round-trip trade of US$9.3bn....

Brian Freitas

MiniMax (100 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline/Flows & Stock Connect Entry

MiniMax will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. That will also result in the expiry of some pre-IPO shareholder...

Brian Freitas

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...