Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> will Dual Primary list on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> by Way of Introduction and the stock is expected to start trading on 30 December.</li>
<li>Following the changes to the handling of Dual-Primary-listed companies, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> should also be added to the HSCI at the March rebalance and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect late July/ early August.</li>
</ul>



Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) will Dual Primary list on the HKEX (388 HK) by Way of Introduction and the stock is expected to start trading on 30 December.
Following the changes to the handling of Dual-Primary-listed companies, Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should be added to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should also be added to the HSCI at the March rebalance and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect late July/ early August.


Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> currently has a float of 1.4%. That will increase to 46% at the end of June as pre-IPO and cornerstone investor lock-ups end.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index</a> FAF increase and potential inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a> will require passive trackers to buy 700m shares early September.</li>
<li>Economic stimulus in China, outlook for China tech, lock-up expiry, inclusion in Southbound Connect and flows from passive trackers will drive the stock for few months and provide trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) currently has a float of 1.4%. That will increase to 46% at the end of June as pre-IPO and cornerstone investor lock-ups end.
The Hang Seng Tech Index FAF increase and potential inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will require passive trackers to buy 700m shares early September.
Economic stimulus in China, outlook for China tech, lock-up expiry, inclusion in Southbound Connect and flows from passive trackers will drive the stock for few months and provide trading opportunities.


SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Will Bring BIG Passive Flow

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-sanhua-intellignt-controls-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12940:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)</a>'s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  </li>
<li>There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.</li>
</ul>



Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)'s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  
There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.


Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.</li>
<li>A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.</li>
<li>There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.


CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

Pop Mart International Group L / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group (390 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.</li>
<li>There are a lot of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)</a> and China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a>.   </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US). 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).   


FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

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HKEX (388 HK)

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CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

There are 10 constituent changes in June and the flow and impact is pretty large. The adds have outperformed the deletes bigly over the last 2 days...

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FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart and SF Holdings replace China Railway and China Merchant Securities in the FXI ETF at the close on 20 June. SF Holding will also be added...

Brian Freitas

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