Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> announced in-specie dividends of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> (US$15bn+) in 2021 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> (US$20bn) in 2022.</li>
<li>With the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) announced in-specie dividends of JD.com (9618 HK) (US$15bn+) in 2021 and Meituan (3690 HK) (US$20bn) in 2022.
With the Tencent (700 HK) Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.

Tencent (700 HK) owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.


Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.</li><li>Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.</li><li>Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.</li></ul>

Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Numerous studies conducted over the past few decades have researched the “month of the year effect” in global stock markets, and tend to agree that some effects do exist.</li>
<li>Most studies however concur that seasonality, on its own, is a weak predictor of performance. We call these studies “Naïve Seasonality Analysis”, for reasons that we will explain here.</li>
<li>Based on the above premise, in this Smartkarma Original we are going to propose a methodology to improve seasonality research, to identify <em>when</em> specific months can deliver the best returns.</li>
</ul>


Numerous studies conducted over the past few decades have researched the “month of the year effect” in global stock markets, and tend to agree that some effects do exist.
Most studies however concur that seasonality, on its own, is a weak predictor of performance. We call these studies “Naïve Seasonality Analysis”, for reasons that we will explain here.
Based on the above premise, in this Smartkarma Original we are going to propose a methodology to improve seasonality research, to identify when specific months can deliver the best returns.


Influence of Monthly Time Patterns on Seasonal Effects in Asian Stock Markets: NKY and HSI

<ul><li>Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.</li><li>If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.</li><li>We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.</li></ul>

Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> closed last week down at 17172.13 (CC=-1), on Wednesday was trading below the Q3 WEEKLY support, very OVERSOLD from a price perspective.</li>
<li>When this pattern is encountered, usually the index bounces no later than CC=-3, i.e. after this week or the week after the end of next week.</li>
<li>The next support area to go LONG is 16534 and the index got quite close to it intraday, at the start of this week: the low was 16879. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index closed last week down at 17172.13 (CC=-1), on Wednesday was trading below the Q3 WEEKLY support, very OVERSOLD from a price perspective.
When this pattern is encountered, usually the index bounces no later than CC=-3, i.e. after this week or the week after the end of next week.
The next support area to go LONG is 16534 and the index got quite close to it intraday, at the start of this week: the low was 16879. 


EQD | Hang Seng Index WEEKLY Heavily Oversold: It Can Bounce in 2 Weeks

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

Tencent could make it a hat-trick of special in-specie dividend distributions. After JD.com and Meituan, Kuaishou could be next. Or it could be...

Brian Freitas

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains...

Steno Research

Influence of Monthly Time Patterns on Seasonal Effects in Asian Stock Markets: NKY and HSI

Numerous studies conducted over the past few decades have researched the “month of the year effect” in global stock markets, and tend to agree...

Nico Rosti

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China. If Chinese consumers remain conservative,...

Steno Research

EQD | Hang Seng Index WEEKLY Heavily Oversold: It Can Bounce in 2 Weeks

The Hang Seng Index closed down last week (CC=-1) and is heavily OVERSOLD from a price perspective, the next support area to go LONG is 16534, a...

Nico Rosti

Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

Tencent could make it a hat-trick of special in-specie dividend distributions. After JD.com and Meituan, Kuaishou could be next. Or it could be...

Brian Freitas

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains...

Steno Research

Influence of Monthly Time Patterns on Seasonal Effects in Asian Stock Markets: NKY and HSI

Numerous studies conducted over the past few decades have researched the “month of the year effect” in global stock markets, and tend to agree...

Nico Rosti

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China. If Chinese consumers remain conservative,...

Steno Research

EQD | Hang Seng Index WEEKLY Heavily Oversold: It Can Bounce in 2 Weeks

​The Hang Seng Index closed down last week (CC=-1) and is heavily OVERSOLD from a price perspective, the next support area to go LONG is 16534, a...

Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index closed down last week (CC=-1) and is heavily OVERSOLD from a price perspective, the next support area to go LONG is 16534, a...