Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> will announce quarterly results on Tuesday, November 25, 8:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time)</li>
<li>Options markets anticipate an above average move with a bearish bias in traders' expectations. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.</li>
<li>Get ready for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>'s earnings announcement. Potential above-average volatility in Alibaba has the potential to impact the wider market and Chinese benchmark indices.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Tuesday, November 25, 8:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time)
Options markets anticipate an above average move with a bearish bias in traders' expectations. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
Get ready for Alibaba's earnings announcement. Potential above-average volatility in Alibaba has the potential to impact the wider market and Chinese benchmark indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.</li>
<li>Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.</li>
<li>Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.
Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.
Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.


ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior

<ul>
<li>
Context: Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Highlights: 55% of strategies exhibit a bullish bias, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.</li>
<li>
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,</li>
</ul>



Context: Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Highlights: 55% of strategies exhibit a bullish bias, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.

Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Top Trades Bet on a Bullish Trend Reversal

<ul>
<li>
Context: Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Market sentiment is evenly balanced between bullish and bearish strategies, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.</li>
<li>
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,</li>
</ul>



Context: Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Highlights: Market sentiment is evenly balanced between bullish and bearish strategies, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.

Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,


Tencent (700 HK): Top Option Trades Reveal a Split in Market Sentiment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December. All changes are in line.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a>. </li>
</ul>



China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.

Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao. 


HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move

Alibaba (9988 HK // BABA US) to report today, Tuesday 25 Nov, after the HK market close and before the US market open. Option markets are pricing a...

Gaudenz Schneider

ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior

Overall higher implied vols, a similar earnings move to last Q and a pattern of uneven Q2 results frame a cautious setup for Baba’s upcoming...

John Ley

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Top Trades Bet on a Bullish Trend Reversal

Xiaomi’s top multi-leg option strategies point to rising bullish conviction after the recent sell-off, offering actionable examples for traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Top Option Trades Reveal a Split in Market Sentiment

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies highlight evenly split bullish and bearish sentiment, with diagonal spreads making up 25% of trades....

Gaudenz Schneider

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

3 changes for the HSCEI in December - all in line. Innovent Bio also added to the HSI. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6%...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move

Alibaba (9988 HK // BABA US) to report today, Tuesday 25 Nov, after the HK market close and before the US market open. Option markets are pricing a...

Gaudenz Schneider

ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior

Overall higher implied vols, a similar earnings move to last Q and a pattern of uneven Q2 results frame a cautious setup for Baba’s upcoming...

John Ley

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Top Trades Bet on a Bullish Trend Reversal

Xiaomi’s top multi-leg option strategies point to rising bullish conviction after the recent sell-off, offering actionable examples for traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Top Option Trades Reveal a Split in Market Sentiment

​Tencent's multi-leg option strategies highlight evenly split bullish and bearish sentiment, with diagonal spreads making up 25% of trades....

Gaudenz Schneider

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

3 changes for the HSCEI in December - all in line. Innovent Bio also added to the HSI. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6%...

Brian Freitas

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies highlight evenly split bullish and bearish sentiment, with diagonal spreads making up 25% of trades....