Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With two days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">FXI</a> ETF in June.</li>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> will add to the potential inclusion of the stock in other indices.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing in both stocks. Multiple index inclusions could result in short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group</a>'s stock price has been bouncing off its lows.</li>
</ul>


With two days left in the review period, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could replace China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) in the FXI ETF in June.
The inclusion of Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) will add to the potential inclusion of the stock in other indices.
Short interest has been increasing in both stocks. Multiple index inclusions could result in short covering in Pop Mart while China Railway Group's stock price has been bouncing off its lows.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> could raise up to US$1.6bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.</li>
<li>There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.</li>
<li>Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 20 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) could raise up to US$1.6bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 20 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.


Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) H-Share IPO: Index Inclusion Later This Year

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.</li>
<li>The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.</li>
<li>Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.</li>
</ul>


Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.
Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.


BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings. </li>
<li>We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings. 
We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again

Pop Mart could replace China Railway in the FXI ETF. Pop Mart is also a potential inclusion to other indices. Shorts have been increasing in both...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

We expect the ADDs/DELs and indicative weights for the Hang Seng Index to be publicly confirmed on Friday 16th May 2025. This is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

We highlight 7 potential inclusions for the HSI in June, though the index committee could make no changes as we have seen in the past. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again

Pop Mart could replace China Railway in the FXI ETF. Pop Mart is also a potential inclusion to other indices. Shorts have been increasing in both...

Brian Freitas

Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK) H-Share IPO: Index Inclusion Later This Year

Jiangsu Hengrui could raise up to US$1.6bn in its H-share offering. The huge allocation to cornerstone investors will result in missed index Fast...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

We expect the ADDs/DELs and indicative weights for the Hang Seng Index to be publicly confirmed on Friday 16th May 2025. This is a good time to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

​Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

We highlight 7 potential inclusions for the HSI in June, though the index committee could make no changes as we have seen in the past. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.