Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Bank of Japan, the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Korea.</li>
<li>
Elections: Australia is holding national elections on 3 May while South Korea has presidential elections in early June.</li>
<li>
Various exchange holidays in several countries at the beginning of the month, and in the last week of May.</li>
</ul>



Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Bank of Japan, the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Korea.

Elections: Australia is holding national elections on 3 May while South Korea has presidential elections in early June.

Various exchange holidays in several countries at the beginning of the month, and in the last week of May.


Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.</li>
<li>
Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. </li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.

Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in BYD (1211 HK). A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. 


BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

<ul>
<li>
Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has decreased but remains high at 48% (80th percentile), reflecting persistent market uncertainty.</li>
<li>
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The volatility term structure is slightly inverted, and a pronounced smile in the skew favors call and put spreads.</li>
<li>
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in May, June, and December 2025 expiries, with a slight bias towards puts. Open interest peaking at out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts.</li>
</ul>



Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) has decreased but remains high at 48% (80th percentile), reflecting persistent market uncertainty.

Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The volatility term structure is slightly inverted, and a pronounced smile in the skew favors call and put spreads.

Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in May, June, and December 2025 expiries, with a slight bias towards puts. Open interest peaking at out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts.


BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.</li>
<li>On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.</li>
<li>If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> are to suffer. </li>
</ul>


Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.
On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.
If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like BYD (1211 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) are to suffer. 


HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 70% of all strategies. With a bias towards bullish views, Bull Call Spreads outnumber Bear Put Spreads by 2:1.</li>
<li>
Lottery Trades: following observations of such strategies in other stocks, a lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. Trade size tends to be sizable.</li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 70% of all strategies. With a bias towards bullish views, Bull Call Spreads outnumber Bear Put Spreads by 2:1.

Lottery Trades: following observations of such strategies in other stocks, a lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. Trade size tends to be sizable.


Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

The Month Ahead: Key Events in May 2025

May will be a busy month with central bank rate decisions, elections in Australia and South Korea. Dates of exchange holidays and monthly option...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

BYD (1211 HK) option strategies show focus on bearish views with Put Spreads dominating. Lottery Trades gain popularity for low probability, high...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies show a bullish bias, with Call/Put Spreads dominating and Lottery Trades making an appearance.

Gaudenz Schneider

The Month Ahead: Key Events in May 2025

​May will be a busy month with central bank rate decisions, elections in Australia and South Korea. Dates of exchange holidays and monthly option...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

​BYD (1211 HK) option strategies show focus on bearish views with Put Spreads dominating. Lottery Trades gain popularity for low probability, high...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

​Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

​Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

​Tencent's multi-leg option strategies show a bullish bias, with Call/Put Spreads dominating and Lottery Trades making an appearance.

Gaudenz Schneider

May will be a busy month with central bank rate decisions, elections in Australia and South Korea. Dates of exchange holidays and monthly option...

BYD (1211 HK) option strategies show focus on bearish views with Put Spreads dominating. Lottery Trades gain popularity for low probability, high...

Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies show a bullish bias, with Call/Put Spreads dominating and Lottery Trades making an appearance.