Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>An in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.</li>
<li>Based on ICBC’s historical post-earnings behavior and current implied vol levels, we recommend a hedge into the event.</li>
<li>We explore post-earnings moves that show a potentially exploitable pattern.</li>
</ul>


An in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
Based on ICBC’s historical post-earnings behavior and current implied vol levels, we recommend a hedge into the event.
We explore post-earnings moves that show a potentially exploitable pattern.


ICBC (1398.HK) Earnings: Volatility Pricing, Post-Release Trade Setup & Tactical Hedge

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi's (1810 HK)</a> one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).</li>
<li>The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.</li>
<li>Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi's (1810 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).
The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.


Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Xiaomi</strong> Corp (1810 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.</li>
<li>Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.</li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.
Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.


Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

China Petroleum & Chemical / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.</li>
<li>Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.</li>
<li>Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.</li>
</ul>


With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.


Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

<ul>
<li>One-Month implied volatility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.</li>
<li>The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.</li>
<li>Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.</li>
</ul>


One-Month implied volatility for Meituan (3690 HK) has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.
The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.
Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.


Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

ICBC (1398.HK) Earnings: Volatility Pricing, Post-Release Trade Setup & Tactical Hedge

Analysis of price patterns, implied volatility, and earnings implied jump suggest hedging into ICBC's upcoming earnings event based on historical...

John Ley

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities

Xiaomi's implied and realized volatility remains high with the options market showing opportunities for calendar spreads and diagonal spreads.

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Xiaomi Corp's multi-leg option strategies show diverse approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish trades, including large trades and self...

Gaudenz Schneider

Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

John Ley

Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

Meituan's implied volatility has dropped to median levels, but realized volatility remains high. Flat term structure suggests little impact from...

Gaudenz Schneider

ICBC (1398.HK) Earnings: Volatility Pricing, Post-Release Trade Setup & Tactical Hedge

​Analysis of price patterns, implied volatility, and earnings implied jump suggest hedging into ICBC's upcoming earnings event based on historical...

John Ley

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities

​Xiaomi's implied and realized volatility remains high with the options market showing opportunities for calendar spreads and diagonal spreads.

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

​Xiaomi Corp's multi-leg option strategies show diverse approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish trades, including large trades and self...

Gaudenz Schneider

Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

John Ley

Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

​Meituan's implied volatility has dropped to median levels, but realized volatility remains high. Flat term structure suggests little impact from...

Gaudenz Schneider

Analysis of price patterns, implied volatility, and earnings implied jump suggest hedging into ICBC's upcoming earnings event based on historical...

Xiaomi's implied and realized volatility remains high with the options market showing opportunities for calendar spreads and diagonal spreads.

Xiaomi Corp's multi-leg option strategies show diverse approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish trades, including large trades and self...

Sinopec's recent 8.47% drop prompts analysis of price patterns, implied vols, and earnings implications, with Q1 historically being the quarter...

Meituan's implied volatility has dropped to median levels, but realized volatility remains high. Flat term structure suggests little impact from...