HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have led to over 10% fall in the Hong Kong market, but there are some names that only came down by 3.2% on average.</li>
<li>Their characteristics are: 1.) domestically focused, 2.) net cash position, 3.) secure demand, 4.) consumption downgrade beneficiary, and 5.) good dividends.</li>
<li>These stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinhua-winshare-publishing-media-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1" rel="noopener">Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have led to over 10% fall in the Hong Kong market, but there are some names that only came down by 3.2% on average.
Their characteristics are: 1.) domestically focused, 2.) net cash position, 3.) secure demand, 4.) consumption downgrade beneficiary, and 5.) good dividends.
These stocks are Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), Kunlun Energy (135 HK), Mixue Group (2097 HK), and China East Education (667 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.</li>
<li>This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.</li>
<li>Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.</li>
</ul>


Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2:  Trading Opportunities.

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Analysis of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100</a> stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nasdaq-100-ndx-and-trump-s-tariffs-war-how-to-read-our-insights-models-during-a-bear-market-crash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As explained in this insight</a>, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. </li>
<li>What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. </li>
</ul>


Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&amp;P/ASX 200, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? 

As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. 
What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. 


Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.</li>
<li>
CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.</li>
</ul>



India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.

CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.

Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

<ul>
<li>That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets</li>
<li>Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit</li>
<li>Our alternative sector selection  has performed both absolutely and in relative terms</li>
</ul>


That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets
Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit
Our alternative sector selection  has performed both absolutely and in relative terms


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1:  Hong Kong Strategy

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?

The stocks with a domestic focus, cash position, secure demand, consumption benefits, and high dividends are more insulated: Xinhua Winshare,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Rikki Malik

China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?

The stocks with a domestic focus, cash position, secure demand, consumption benefits, and high dividends are more insulated: Xinhua Winshare,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

​US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

​RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

​Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...

Rikki Malik

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Investors in US markets face a sudden realization, with Hong Kong Tech most vulnerable as profit-taking occurs. Our alternative sector selection...