Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> significantly beat Q4 2024 earnings expectations, yet the stock showed minimal price movement with just a 1.0% gain immediately after the announcement.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings implied volatility declined substantially from 72% pre-earnings to below 53.4% after earnings, confirming pre-announcement predictions of overpriced volatility.</li>
<li>Straddle positions were actively traded around the earnings event. A case study showcases a profitable short straddle strategy.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) significantly beat Q4 2024 earnings expectations, yet the stock showed minimal price movement with just a 1.0% gain immediately after the announcement.
Post-Earnings implied volatility declined substantially from 72% pre-earnings to below 53.4% after earnings, confirming pre-announcement predictions of overpriced volatility.
Straddle positions were actively traded around the earnings event. A case study showcases a profitable short straddle strategy.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Beat, Volatility Retreat, and Straddle Success

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.</li>
<li>Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.</li>
<li>The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.</li>
</ul>


Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.


Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd-cca8f162-fa93-4d59-944e-86bad7251e5c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> will release 2024 results on Thursday 20 March 2025. </li>
<li>Historically, the stock shows minimal post-earnings volatility, with rare exceptions. Options markets project moderate movement. Opportunities exist for investors with strong directional conviction.</li>
<li>Given China Mobile's recent history of dividend increases and strong stock performance, a significant dividend boost is possible.</li>
</ul>



China Mobile (941 HK) / China Mobile (600941 CH) will release 2024 results on Thursday 20 March 2025. 
Historically, the stock shows minimal post-earnings volatility, with rare exceptions. Options markets project moderate movement. Opportunities exist for investors with strong directional conviction.
Given China Mobile's recent history of dividend increases and strong stock performance, a significant dividend boost is possible.


China Mobile (941 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Ping An Insurance (H) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Ping An Insurance (2318 HK / 601318 CH) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.</li>
<li>Option markets are currently pricing in a significantly larger post-announcement price move than historical patterns would suggest.</li>
<li>Two trade examples for calendar spreads, taking advantage of elevated near-term implied volatility, are presented.</li>
</ul>


Ping An Insurance (2318 HK / 601318 CH) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
Option markets are currently pricing in a significantly larger post-announcement price move than historical patterns would suggest.
Two trade examples for calendar spreads, taking advantage of elevated near-term implied volatility, are presented.


Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): 2024 Earnings, Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd-69366efb-cf6b-404d-a0e4-c6b9b2e128dc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)</a> is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.</li>
<li>Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>'s significant index weighting, around 8% in key Hong Kong indices, means its earnings has the potential to impact broader market performance.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) / Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.

Tencent's significant index weighting, around 8% in key Hong Kong indices, means its earnings has the potential to impact broader market performance.


Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Beat, Volatility Retreat, and Straddle Success

Xiaomi Corp post-earnings implied volatility drops significantly. Trading straddle positions around earnings event proves profitable.

Gaudenz Schneider

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Reminder. China Mobile (941 HK) will release 2024 results tonight at 19:00h (HK time) and announce their dividend. Large volume traded yesterday in...

Gaudenz Schneider

China Mobile (941 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

China Mobile to release 2024 results with potential for significant dividend boost and opportunities for investors with strong directional...

Gaudenz Schneider

Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): 2024 Earnings, Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

Ping An Insurance to announce 2024 results with option markets expecting larger price move than usual; trade examples for calendar spreads provided.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Tencent to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025. Options pricing suggests a 4-6% move. Calendar spreads offer opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Beat, Volatility Retreat, and Straddle Success

​Xiaomi Corp post-earnings implied volatility drops significantly. Trading straddle positions around earnings event proves profitable.

Gaudenz Schneider

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Reminder. China Mobile (941 HK) will release 2024 results tonight at 19:00h (HK time) and announce their dividend. Large volume traded yesterday in...

Gaudenz Schneider

China Mobile (941 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

​China Mobile to release 2024 results with potential for significant dividend boost and opportunities for investors with strong directional...

Gaudenz Schneider

Ping An Insurance (2318 HK): 2024 Earnings, Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

​Ping An Insurance to announce 2024 results with option markets expecting larger price move than usual; trade examples for calendar spreads provided.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

​Tencent to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025. Options pricing suggests a 4-6% move. Calendar spreads offer opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi Corp post-earnings implied volatility drops significantly. Trading straddle positions around earnings event proves profitable.

China Mobile to release 2024 results with potential for significant dividend boost and opportunities for investors with strong directional...

Ping An Insurance to announce 2024 results with option markets expecting larger price move than usual; trade examples for calendar spreads provided.

Tencent to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025. Options pricing suggests a 4-6% move. Calendar spreads offer opportunities.