Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will go to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.</li>
<li>There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).</li>
</ul>


There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>There should be big passive inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.</li>
<li>Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.</li>
<li>Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.</li>
</ul>


There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.</li>
<li>No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).</li>
<li>An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Horizon Robotics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.</li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Horizon Robotics Placement - Momentum Is Strong but Raising Seems Opportunistic

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. Then there will be passive buying at the close on 20 June.</li>
<li>The lock up expiry in April will result in large buying from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> and HSIII Index in September.</li>
<li>The stock will also be added to another large global index, though the timing on inclusion is not certain at the moment.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. Then there will be passive buying at the close on 20 June.
The lock up expiry in April will result in large buying from trackers of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index in September.
The stock will also be added to another large global index, though the timing on inclusion is not certain at the moment.


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion Today & Upcoming Index Flows

China

Horizon Robotics, Inc. offers technology services. The Company develops advanced driver assistance systems, autonomous driving solutions, and other for passenger vehicles. Horizon Robotics provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas