AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron enters its FQ2’26 print with margins set to jump 11ppt QoQ to 68%, driven by a supply-constrained memory market and accelerating HBM-led mix shift.</li>
<li>HBM4 is locked in; progress on 4E would be interesting. Tightness has extended beyond HBM into DRAM and NAND, turning Micron into a pricing and mix-driven play.</li>
<li>ASP trajectory, capex intensity, and early 2027 commitments will determine whether this remains an upward revision cycle or approaches peak pricing.</li>
</ul>


Micron enters its FQ2’26 print with margins set to jump 11ppt QoQ to 68%, driven by a supply-constrained memory market and accelerating HBM-led mix shift.
HBM4 is locked in; progress on 4E would be interesting. Tightness has extended beyond HBM into DRAM and NAND, turning Micron into a pricing and mix-driven play.
ASP trajectory, capex intensity, and early 2027 commitments will determine whether this remains an upward revision cycle or approaches peak pricing.


Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, Ascender Capital issued a <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000001.000178091.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PR Times release</a> raising concerns over what it states is a conflicted Bain-sponsored MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Ascender, which first published its concerns <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/?redeem=aHR0cHM6Ly8xZHJ2Lm1zL2IvYy83OWRiY2U2MzllMGVhMjY2L0lRQXFhaXItRGdQVFE3T21WVFlmZGVjREFWRHczbnM5TloyRmJqb2loamY2QThBP2U9TXA5djFk&amp;cid=79DBCE639E0EA266&amp;id=79DBCE639E0EA266%21sfe2a6a2a030e43d3b3a655361f75e703&amp;parId=79DBCE639E0EA266%21s52e69e76ff9946efbf1b4dc36d3cca83&amp;o=OneUp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on its website</a> on 16 February, highlights four issues with the MBO and seeks a higher price. Most of Ascender’s criticisms are valid.</li>
<li>Bain’s initial approach will be to wait until the first close approaches (24 March). However, with significant volume trading above the offer, a bump is very likely.</li>
</ul>


Today, Ascender Capital issued a PR Times release raising concerns over what it states is a conflicted Bain-sponsored MBO for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP).
Ascender, which first published its concerns on its website on 16 February, highlights four issues with the MBO and seeks a higher price. Most of Ascender’s criticisms are valid.
Bain’s initial approach will be to wait until the first close approaches (24 March). However, with significant volume trading above the offer, a bump is very likely.


MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY2,200, a 43.0% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>Mr Yuji Takashima (Chairman and CEO) will reinvest to take a 33.1% stake. The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>However, the sale process was lacking (no auction) and is light compared to peer multiples. Barring the emergence of an activist, this is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP) has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY2,200, a 43.0% premium to the last close. 
Mr Yuji Takashima (Chairman and CEO) will reinvest to take a 33.1% stake. The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
However, the sale process was lacking (no auction) and is light compared to peer multiples. Barring the emergence of an activist, this is a done deal. 


MCJ (6670 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY2,200

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Hidden Risk for Apple? -- TSMC's Potential 2nm Capacity Bottlneck</li>
<li>Long/Short SK Vs. Nanya: AI Memory Leadership to Outperform Legacy DRAM’s Final Cyclical Peak</li>
<li>Himax (HIMX US, Long): Management Call Confirms 2026 Mass-Production Readiness; Increasing Forecasts </li>
</ul>


Hidden Risk for Apple? -- TSMC's Potential 2nm Capacity Bottlneck
Long/Short SK Vs. Nanya: AI Memory Leadership to Outperform Legacy DRAM’s Final Cyclical Peak
Himax (HIMX US, Long): Management Call Confirms 2026 Mass-Production Readiness; Increasing Forecasts 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC a Hidden Capacity Risk for Apple; Memory Pair Long/Short Opportunity

<ul>
<li>AI PCs turning the PC refresh into a gradual, extended up-cycle</li>
<li>Memory inflation is one of the major margin risks for PC makers in 2026</li>
<li>Dell's server business indicates AI factory build-outs becoming a multi-year investment cycle. Remain long Dell, Asustek, Acer.</li>
</ul>


AI PCs turning the PC refresh into a gradual, extended up-cycle
Memory inflation is one of the major margin risks for PC makers in 2026
Dell's server business indicates AI factory build-outs becoming a multi-year investment cycle. Remain long Dell, Asustek, Acer.


PC Monitor: Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E

United States

HP Inc. provides imaging and printing systems, computing systems, mobile devices, solutions, and services for business and home. The Company offers products which includes laser and inkjet printers, scanners, copiers and faxes, personal computers, workstations, storage solutions, and other computing and printing systems. HP sells its products worldwide.

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Hewlett Packard Co (HPQ US)

Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Mint Finance

MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

Ascender, a long-term holder, has taken the activist mantle, pushing for a higher offer. Due to the high volume traded above the offer, another...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY2,200

The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the offer is light compared to peer...

Arun George

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC a Hidden Capacity Risk for Apple; Memory Pair Long/Short Opportunity

Apple faces some risk due to TSMC's potential 2nm capacity bottleneck. PC makers are struggling to source memory for non-AI products. Long/Short...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E

AI PCs are driving a gradual extended PC refresh cycle, with memory inflation posing a margin risk for PC makers in 2026E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Micron Pre-Earnings: Pricing, HBM, and the Question of Peak Margins

​Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Mint Finance

MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion

Ascender, a long-term holder, has taken the activist mantle, pushing for a higher offer. Due to the high volume traded above the offer, another...

Arun George

MCJ (6670 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY2,200

The offer represents an all-time high and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the offer is light compared to peer...

Arun George

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC a Hidden Capacity Risk for Apple; Memory Pair Long/Short Opportunity

​Apple faces some risk due to TSMC's potential 2nm capacity bottleneck. PC makers are struggling to source memory for non-AI products. Long/Short...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E

​AI PCs are driving a gradual extended PC refresh cycle, with memory inflation posing a margin risk for PC makers in 2026E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's FQ2'26 print shows 11ppt QoQ margin jump to 68%, driven by supply constraints and HBM mix shift. Pricing and mix dynamics will dictate...

Apple faces some risk due to TSMC's potential 2nm capacity bottleneck. PC makers are struggling to source memory for non-AI products. Long/Short...

AI PCs are driving a gradual extended PC refresh cycle, with memory inflation posing a margin risk for PC makers in 2026E.