Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL</li>
<li>There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank</li>
<li>With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs</li>
</ul>


We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL
There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank
With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs


HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed</li>
<li>There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times</li>
<li>Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.</li>
</ul>


The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed
There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times
Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.


HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
<li>
Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.</li>
</ul>



Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI).

Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.

Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.


BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: Index heavyweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (HSBA LN)</a> is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.</li>
<li>
Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.</li>
<li>
Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.</li>
</ul>



Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.

Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.

Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.


HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the Hang Seng and eight prominent Hong Kong stocks</li>
<li>
Highlight: With a dense earnings calendar ahead, volatility dispersion is widening — BYD trades rich into results, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain notably cheap relative to history.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the Hang Seng and eight prominent Hong Kong stocks

Highlight: With a dense earnings calendar ahead, volatility dispersion is widening — BYD trades rich into results, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain notably cheap relative to history.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Selective Volatility Picks Emerge Across HSI Stocks

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance. HSBC Holdings operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (HSBC US)

HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

With 3Q25 results out just over 1 hour ago, we can see clearly, major deterioration in credit metrics, especially stage 2 loans and relative growth...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

$1.1bn hit from Madoff fraud. None of this is positive for HSBC. There can be increased operational risk req. Front office managers are likely to...

Daniel Tabbush

BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Spot the Swing: Some of Hong Kong’s biggest names — HSBC, Ping An, Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank, BYD, and AIA Group — report this...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

Selective Volatility Picks Emerge Across HSI Stocks

Rich vs. cheap volatility in Hong Kong’s top stocks: BYD trades rich, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain subdued, as options highlight growing...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

With 3Q25 results out just over 1 hour ago, we can see clearly, major deterioration in credit metrics, especially stage 2 loans and relative growth...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

$1.1bn hit from Madoff fraud. None of this is positive for HSBC. There can be increased operational risk req. Front office managers are likely to...

Daniel Tabbush

BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Spot the Swing: Some of Hong Kong’s biggest names — HSBC, Ping An, Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank, BYD, and AIA Group — report this...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

​HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

Selective Volatility Picks Emerge Across HSI Stocks

Rich vs. cheap volatility in Hong Kong’s top stocks: BYD trades rich, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain subdued, as options highlight growing...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.