Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> 's operating engine has decelerated across loan growth, NII, and productivity, while provisioning has turned volatile and ROE/ROA declined faster than ICICI or SBI.</li>
<li>Over the recent period, governance concerns compounded: whistleblower complaints nearly doubled, the chairman resigned citing unspecified ethics concerns, and the CEO opted not to seek reappointment.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> remains the sole laggard in a global peer set, with no signs the trend is turning and hence, capital probably is better deployed exploring opportunities globally.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) 's operating engine has decelerated across loan growth, NII, and productivity, while provisioning has turned volatile and ROE/ROA declined faster than ICICI or SBI.
Over the recent period, governance concerns compounded: whistleblower complaints nearly doubled, the chairman resigned citing unspecified ethics concerns, and the CEO opted not to seek reappointment.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains the sole laggard in a global peer set, with no signs the trend is turning and hence, capital probably is better deployed exploring opportunities globally.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Signals the Board & Investors Ignored

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.</li>
<li>There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. </li>
<li>Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?</li>
</ul>


The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.
There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. 
Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?


Bank of Jiujiang - Rare Announcement Expecting at Least 30% Profit Decline

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 28th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), Link Reit (823 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 28th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), Link Reit (823 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 28th): Tencent, Kuaishou, Link Reit, J&T Express, Tuhu Car

<ul>
<li>Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago</li>
<li>Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure</li>
</ul>


Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data
Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure


US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

<ul>
<li>CMA shows how the profile of net interest income can weaken considerably with rising funding costs and risk aversion</li>
<li>Criticized assets are rising substantially and even so, the bank has not taken a higher provision expense in the quarter - this can be yet to come</li>
<li>CRE loans are growing faster than other loan, at a time when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> shows the current risks on these loans</li>
</ul>


CMA shows how the profile of net interest income can weaken considerably with rising funding costs and risk aversion
Criticized assets are rising substantially and even so, the bank has not taken a higher provision expense in the quarter - this can be yet to come
CRE loans are growing faster than other loan, at a time when New York Community Bank (NYCB US) shows the current risks on these loans


CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings Plc is a British universal bank and financial services group operating worldwide. It offers a wide range of services including retail and personal banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking, and markets and securities services. The company was founded in British Hong Kong in 1865 and is headquartered in London, England.

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HSBC (HSBA LN)

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Signals the Board & Investors Ignored

A chairman's abrupt exit. Whistleblowers up 82%. Decelerating growth. HDFC Bank's numbers were flashing red — the board and bulls looked away.

Pranav Bhavsar

Bank of Jiujiang - Rare Announcement Expecting at Least 30% Profit Decline

Bank of Jiujiang announced that its profit would be at least 30% lower for FY23 due to worsening credit metrics. This is incredibly rare to see...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 28th): Tencent, Kuaishou, Link Reit, J&T Express, Tuhu Car

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

CMA is showing some worrying figures in the wake of NYCB disclosures. CMA's net interest income is in sharp contraction, CRE loans rising fast and...

Daniel Tabbush

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