Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 14th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Xiaomi (1810 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), HSBC (5 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 14th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Xiaomi (1810 HK), Link Reit (823 HK), HSBC (5 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 14th): HSBC, Link Reit, Xiaomi

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal</li>
<li>AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed</li>
<li>The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise</li>
</ul>


The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal
AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed
The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.</li>
<li>Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.


More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Country Garden Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended Jul 31st.</li>
<li>We estimate that the net southbound flows in July were $8.1bn Inflows.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Ntes, Kingboard Laminates, Xiaomi, Alibaba.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended Jul 31st.
We estimate that the net southbound flows in July were $8.1bn Inflows.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Ntes, Kingboard Laminates, Xiaomi, Alibaba.


HK Connect Monthly (July): $8.1bn Inflows

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings Plc is a British universal bank and financial services group operating worldwide. It offers a wide range of services including retail and personal banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking, and markets and securities services. The company was founded in British Hong Kong in 1865 and is headquartered in London, England.

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HSBC (HSBA LN)

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 14th): HSBC, Link Reit, Xiaomi

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were HSBC (5 HK), Link...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

With market dynamics still bearish, we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on SPX, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ) are likely...

Vermilion Research

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

HK Connect Monthly (July): $8.1bn Inflows

We estimate inflows to be $8.1bn from mainland investors to HK stocks in July. We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Ntes, Kingboard Laminates,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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