Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

Equity Bottom-Up

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

*5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. * 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>HNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland China has been aggressively reducing its Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] stake since the beginning of 2018 due to its own short-term financing needs. At the end of the day, we would not be shocked to see HNA (5.5% stake today vs. 9.1% at the peak) to completely liquidate its entire Deutsche position.Much more concerning, however, are press…

*5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. * 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated.  Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland China has been aggressively reducing its Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] stake since the beginning of 2018 due to its own short-term financing needs. At the end of the day, we would not be shocked to see HNA (5.5% stake today vs. 9.1% at the peak) to completely liquidate its entire Deutsche position.Much more concerning, however, are press…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK)</a> announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

Vietnam Banking Sector - Stop, It Hurts

* Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable: Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank – Puke

5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated. Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC - Yet a New Strategy?

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to...

Daniel Tabbush

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide...

Thomas J. Monaco

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vietnam Banking Sector - Stop, It Hurts

* Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable: Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank – Puke

*5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. * 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated. Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC - Yet a New Strategy?

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to...

Daniel Tabbush

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide...

Thomas J. Monaco

5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated. Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland...