Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li><p>Power / Cover Story: The dilemma of China’s power market restructuring</p></li><li><p>Policy / Xi Jinping repeats China’s commitment to opening-up policy</p></li><li><p>Covid-19 / Beijing shames local authorities for ‘one-size-fits-all’ Covid policies</p></li></ul>

Power / Cover Story: The dilemma of China’s power market restructuringPolicy / Xi Jinping repeats China’s commitment to opening-up policyCovid-19 / Beijing shames local authorities for ‘one-size-fits-all’ Covid policies

CX Daily: The Dilemma of China’s Power Market Restructuring

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ASML and LAM announced solid 3Q22 revenue/earnings (+6%/21% QoQ, +10%/16% QoQ) last week, and guided conservative 2023 outlook due to US’s new semi export controls to China and customer demand weakness on macro concerns, esp. memory segment.</li><li>Regarding new US export restrictions, LAM expected revenue impact of US$2-2.5bn (12-15% of sales) in 2023, and ASML estimated indirect impact of 5% on its backlog in 2023 as DUV systems for mature nodes can still be shipped to China.</li><li>Regarding business outlook, LAM guided 20% WFE market decline in 2023 due to industry slowdown, while ASML expected limited impact given strong backlog for advanced nodes and capacity expansion.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ASML and LAM announced solid 3Q22 revenue/earnings (+6%/21% QoQ, +10%/16% QoQ) last week, and guided conservative 2023 outlook due to US’s new semi export controls to China and customer demand weakness on macro concerns, esp. memory segment.Regarding new US export restrictions, LAM expected revenue impact of US$2-2.5bn (12-15% of sales) in 2023, and ASML estimated indirect impact of 5% on its backlog in 2023 as DUV systems for mature nodes can still be shipped to China.Regarding business outlook, LAM guided 20% WFE market decline in 2023 due to industry slowdown, while ASML expected limited impact given strong backlog for advanced nodes and capacity expansion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology - Implications of global SPE leaders 3Q22 results on semi industry outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended Jul 31st.</li>
<li>We estimate that the net southbound flows in July were $8.1bn Inflows.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Ntes, Kingboard Laminates, Xiaomi, Alibaba.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended Jul 31st.
We estimate that the net southbound flows in July were $8.1bn Inflows.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Ntes, Kingboard Laminates, Xiaomi, Alibaba.


HK Connect Monthly (July): $8.1bn Inflows

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>US Department of Commerce announced new set of export controls on 7 Oct (link) that semiconductors made with US technology for use in advanced computing chips, supercomputers, and advanced semiconductors can only be sold to China with an export licence.</li><li>This first rule targets to 1) tighten existing restrictions on logic IC of 16nm/14nm or below (i.e. FinFET or GAAFET), 2) extends restrictions to memory IC category (DRAM of 18nm or below, and NAND with 128-layer or more), and 3) foreign-owned production facilities located in China will need to apply for approval for related equipment on a case- by-case basis.</li><li>The second rule added China’s memory chipmaker Yangtze Memory and 30 other Chinese entities to “Unverified list”. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

US Department of Commerce announced new set of export controls on 7 Oct (link) that semiconductors made with US technology for use in advanced computing chips, supercomputers, and advanced semiconductors can only be sold to China with an export licence.This first rule targets to 1) tighten existing restrictions on logic IC of 16nm/14nm or below (i.e. FinFET or GAAFET), 2) extends restrictions to memory IC category (DRAM of 18nm or below, and NAND with 128-layer or more), and 3) foreign-owned production facilities located in China will need to apply for approval for related equipment on a case- by-case basis.The second rule added China’s memory chipmaker Yangtze Memory and 30 other Chinese entities to “Unverified list”. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology - Implications of US’s new chip export restrictions to China

China

Hua Hong Semiconductor is a global pure-play semiconductor foundry specializing in embedded/standalone non-volatile memory, power discrete, analog & power management, and logic & RF technologies. The company provides diversified wafer fabrication and supporting services for various specialty process platforms. It is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2005.

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Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: The Dilemma of China’s Power Market Restructuring

Cover Story: The dilemma of China’s power market restructuring. Xi Jinping repeats China’s commitment to opening-up policy

Caixin Global

China Technology - Implications of global SPE leaders 3Q22 results on semi industry outlook

ASML and LAM announced solid 3Q22 revenue/earnings (+6%/21% QoQ, +10%/16% QoQ) last week, and guided conservative 2023 outlook due to US’s new semi...

CMB International

HK Connect Monthly (July): $8.1bn Inflows

We estimate inflows to be $8.1bn from mainland investors to HK stocks in July. We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, Ntes, Kingboard Laminates,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Technology - Implications of US’s new chip export restrictions to China

Since SMIC was included on Entity List in 2020, we believe most Chinese foundries focus on expansion on 28nm and above processes.

CMB International

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