Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In 1998, before the US and China entered into Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China in 2000, the US Congress enacted a law requiring the Clinton Administration to publish a list of Chinese companies in the US which did business with the People's Liberation Army (Public Law 105-261, Section 1237), and a "Communist Chinese military company" was defined in that law as any company named in to Defense Intelligence Agency documents from 1990 and 1995 and "any other entity owned or controlled by the PLA and engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, or exporting."That law basically lay dormant until last year when the Pentagon launched a review of such companies following the Trump White House's labelling of China (and Russia) a "revisionist" power in its first National Security Strategy <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> in 2017. The goal was to investigate and warn about supply-chain vulnerabilities. The Department of Defense published a list in June 2020 of 20 companies which were "Qualified Entities". It updated the list in late August 2020. The former Secretary of Defense was ousted several days ago and the new Secretary of Defense is now responsible for the list. There is, as of last night, an Executive Order by the White House blocking US 'persons' investment in any of the names mentioned - a list now 31 names long.More below on the impact.

In 1998, before the US and China entered into Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China in 2000, the US Congress enacted a law requiring the Clinton Administration to publish a list of Chinese companies in the US which did business with the People's Liberation Army (Public Law 105-261, Section 1237), and a "Communist Chinese military company" was defined in that law as any company named in to Defense Intelligence Agency documents from 1990 and 1995 and "any other entity owned or controlled by the PLA and engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, or exporting."That law basically lay dormant until last year when the Pentagon launched a review of such companies following the Trump White House's labelling of China (and Russia) a "revisionist" power in its first National Security Strategy report in 2017. The goal was to investigate and warn about supply-chain vulnerabilities. The Department of Defense published a list in June 2020 of 20 companies which were "Qualified Entities". It updated the list in late August 2020. The former Secretary of Defense was ousted several days ago and the new Secretary of Defense is now responsible for the list. There is, as of last night, an Executive Order by the White House blocking US 'persons' investment in any of the names mentioned - a list now 31 names long.More below on the impact.

Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Despite recent deterioration, technical price and relative strength support levels continue to hold, and uptrends remain intact, for the MSCI EM index. Until this changes, we continue to view recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The attached report is a bottoms up summary of technically attractive setups across all emerging markets and sectors.  Our screen parameters included stocks hitting a 26-week relative strength high, with a greater than 500 million market cap. Taiwan, China, and…

Despite recent deterioration, technical price and relative strength support levels continue to hold, and uptrends remain intact, for the MSCI EM index. Until this changes, we continue to view recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The attached report is a bottoms up summary of technically attractive setups across all emerging markets and sectors.  Our screen parameters included stocks hitting a 26-week relative strength high, with a greater than 500 million market cap. Taiwan, China, and…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Despite improving power demand, China’s coal-fired independent power producers’, or IPPs’, fourth-quarter profits are set to be hit by surging coal prices. We estimate the operating margins for major coal-fired IPPs will be just around breakeven in the fourth quarter. For 2017, while the government’s confirmation that power tariffs will be unchanged is a little disappointing, we think government’s easing in coal supply restrictions will dampen coal prices, leading to margins recovery for coal-fired IPPs.We have reflected our slightly positive 2017 outlook into our earnings estimates and maintain our fair value estimates of HKD 7.40, HKD 2.54 and HKD 17.00 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28:1">Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3664" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3664:1">Datang Intl Power Gen Co H (991 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5385" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1">China Resources Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (836 HK)</a>, respectively, ahead of the full-year earnings results in March.Analysts: Jennifer Song and Lorraine Tan, CFA

Despite improving power demand, China’s coal-fired independent power producers’, or IPPs’, fourth-quarter profits are set to be hit by surging coal prices. We estimate the operating margins for major coal-fired IPPs will be just around breakeven in the fourth quarter. For 2017, while the government’s confirmation that power tariffs will be unchanged is a little disappointing, we think government’s easing in coal supply restrictions will dampen coal prices, leading to margins recovery for coal-fired IPPs.We have reflected our slightly positive 2017 outlook into our earnings estimates and maintain our fair value estimates of HKD 7.40, HKD 2.54 and HKD 17.00 for Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK), Datang Intl Power Gen Co H (991 HK), and China Resources Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (836 HK), respectively, ahead of the full-year earnings results in March.Analysts: Jennifer Song and Lorraine Tan, CFA

Softening Coal Prices and Improving Demand Will Drive a Better 2017 Outlook for Coal-Fired IPPs.

After extending our explicit forecast periods to 10 years from five years, w e have raised our fair value estimate for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1">China Gas Holdings Ltd (384 HK)</a>, or CGH, to HKD 11.40 from HKD 10.30; that for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20525" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20525:1">China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK)</a>, or CRG, to HKD 27.50 from HKD 22.50; and that for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/316" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1">Enn Energy Holdings Ltd (2688 HK)</a>, or ENN, to HKD 50.00 from HKD 44.00.We think CGH, CRG, and ENN still have further room to grow, as their penetration rates, at 52%, 45%, and 55%, respectively, are still relatively low compared with the average level of 70% in developed markets. At current price levels, CRG and ENN look attractive, while CGH is fairly valued, in our view.Analyst: Jennifer Song &amp; Chokwai Lee

After extending our explicit forecast periods to 10 years from five years, w e have raised our fair value estimate for China Gas Holdings Ltd (384 HK), or CGH, to HKD 11.40 from HKD 10.30; that for China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK), or CRG, to HKD 27.50 from HKD 22.50; and that for Enn Energy Holdings Ltd (2688 HK), or ENN, to HKD 50.00 from HKD 44.00.We think CGH, CRG, and ENN still have further room to grow, as their penetration rates, at 52%, 45%, and 55%, respectively, are still relatively low compared with the average level of 70% in developed markets. At current price levels, CRG and ENN look attractive, while CGH is fairly valued, in our view.Analyst: Jennifer Song &amp; Chokwai Lee

Raising Fair Value Estimates for City Gas Operators After Extending Our Forecast Periods

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

The decision to build two new nuclear power stations At Hinkley C in Somerset, England, has rightly been called in for review. It cannot be supported on cost, environmental, political or security grounds. It should be dropped.

The decision to build two new nuclear power stations At Hinkley C in Somerset, England, has rightly been called in for review. It cannot be supported on cost, environmental, political or security grounds. It should be dropped.

Good Reasons Not to Go Ahead with Hinkley C

China

Huadian Fuxin Energy Corporation Limited is a clean energy company focused on power generation and sales. It operates a diversified portfolio of power generation projects, including hydropower, wind, solar, distributed, coal, nuclear, and biomass. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was established in 2004.

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Huadian Fuxin Energy (1994343D HK)

Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies

The White House announced an Executive Order prohibiting "US persons" from "providing capital" to a list of "China Military Cos" which has been...

Travis Lundy

EM: Technical Leadership Charts & Screen

Despite recent deterioration, technical price and relative strength support levels continue to hold, and uptrends remain intact, for the MSCI EM...

Vermilion Research

Softening Coal Prices and Improving Demand Will Drive a Better 2017 Outlook for Coal-Fired IPPs.

Despite improving power demand, China’s coal-fired independent power producers’, or IPPs’, fourth-quarter profits are set to be hit by surging coal...

Morningstar, Inc.

Raising Fair Value Estimates for City Gas Operators After Extending Our Forecast Periods

After extending our explicit forecast periods to 10 years from five years, w e have raised our fair value estimate for China Gas Holdings Ltd (384...

Morningstar, Inc.

Good Reasons Not to Go Ahead with Hinkley C

The decision to build two new nuclear power stations At Hinkley C in Somerset, England, has rightly been called in for review. It cannot be...

Bixmoor

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